They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Design Innovation Report | Apr 27, 2023
BD+C's 2023 Design Innovation Report
Building Design+Construction’s Design Innovation Report presents projects, spaces, and initiatives—and the AEC professionals behind them—that push the boundaries of building design. This year, we feature four novel projects and one building science innovation.
Mixed-Use | Apr 27, 2023
New Jersey turns a brownfield site into Steel Tech, a 3.3-acre mixed-use development
In Jersey City, N.J., a 3.3-acre redevelopment project called Steel Tech will turn a brownfield site into a mixed-use residential high-rise building, a community center, two public plazas, and a business incubator facility. Steel Tech received site plan approval in recent weeks.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 27, 2023
Watch: Specifying materials in multifamily housing projects
A trio of multifamily housing experts discusses trends in materials in their latest developments. Topics include the need to balance aesthetics and durability, the advantages of textured materials, and the benefits of biophilia.
AEC Tech Innovation | Apr 27, 2023
Does your firm use ChatGPT?
Is your firm having success utilizing ChatGPT (or other AI chat tools) on your building projects or as part of your business operations? If so, we want to hear from you.
Concrete Technology | Apr 24, 2023
A housing complex outside Paris is touted as the world’s first fully recycled concrete building
Outside Paris, Holcim, a Swiss-based provider of innovative and sustainable building solutions, and Seqens, a social housing provider in France, are partnering to build Recygénie—a 220-unit housing complex, including 70 social housing units. Holcim is calling the project the world’s first fully recycled concrete building.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 21, 2023
Arlington County, Va., eliminates single-family-only zoning
Arlington County, a Washington, D.C., community that took shape in the 1950s, when single-family homes were the rule in suburbia, recently became one of the first locations on the East Coast to eliminate single-family-only zoning.
Architects | Apr 21, 2023
Architecture billings improve slightly in March
Architecture firms reported a modest increase in March billings. This positive news was tempered by a slight decrease in new design contracts according to a new report released today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). March was the first time since last September in which billings improved.
Green | Apr 21, 2023
Top 10 green building projects for 2023
The Harvard University Science and Engineering Complex in Boston and the Westwood Hills Nature Center in St. Louis are among the AIA COTE Top Ten Awards honorees for 2023.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 19, 2023
Austin’s historic Rainey Street welcomes a new neighbor: a 48-story mixed-used residential tower
Austin’s historic Rainey Street is welcoming a new neighbor. The Paseo, a 48-story mixed-used residential tower, will bring 557 apartments and two levels of retail to the popular Austin entertainment district, known for houses that have been converted into bungalow bars and restaurants.
Design Innovation Report | Apr 19, 2023
Reinforced concrete walls and fins stiffen and shade the National Bank of Kuwait skyscraper
When the National Bank of Kuwait first conceived its new headquarters more than a decade ago, it wanted to make a statement about passive design with a soaring tower that could withstand the extreme heat of Kuwait City, the country’s desert capital.