They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Mixed-Use | Jun 12, 2023
Goettsch Partners completes its largest China project to date: a mixed-used, five-tower complex
Chicago-based global architecture firm Goettsch Partners (GP) recently announced the completion of its largest project in China to date: the China Resources Qianhai Center, a mixed-use complex in the Qianhai district of Shenzhen. Developed by CR Land, the project includes five towers totaling almost 472,000 square meters (4.6 million sf).
Engineers | Jun 12, 2023
Stantec to acquire Environmental Systems Design
Stantec, a global leader in sustainable design and engineering, has signed an agreement to acquire Environmental Systems Design, Inc. (ESD), a 270-person engineering firm headquartered in Chicago. Founded in 1967, ESD has built a reputation for excellence and innovation in high-performance design with a roster of industry-leading clients. The terms of the transaction are not disclosed.
University Buildings | Jun 9, 2023
Cornell’s new information science building will foster dynamic exchange of ideas and quiet, focused research
Construction recently began on Cornell University’s new 135,000-sf building for the Cornell Ann S. Bowers College of Computing and Information Science (Cornell Bowers CIS). The structure will bring together the departments of Computer Science, Information Science, and Statistics and Data Science for the first time in one complex.
Museums | Jun 6, 2023
New wing of Natural History Museums of Los Angeles to be a destination and portal
NHM Commons, a new wing and community hub under construction at The Natural History Museums (NHM) of Los Angeles County, was designed to be both a destination and a portal into the building and to the surrounding grounds.
Performing Arts Centers | Jun 6, 2023
Mumbai, India’s new Nita Mukesh Ambani Cultural Centre has three performing arts venues
In Mumbai, India, the recently completed Nita Mukesh Ambani Cultural Centre (NMACC) will showcase music, theater, and fine arts from India and from across the globe. Atlanta’s TVS Design served as the principal architect and interior designer of both the cultural center and the larger, adjacent Jio World Centre.
Architects | Jun 6, 2023
Taking storytelling to a new level in building design, with Gensler's Bob Weis and Andy Cohen
Bob Weis, formerly the head of Disney Imagineering, was recently hired by Gensler as its Global Immersive Experience Design Leader. He joins the firm's co-CEO Andy Cohen to discuss how Gensler will focus on storytelling to connect people to its projects.
Codes and Standards | Jun 6, 2023
California’s new power grid modernization plan furthers ambitious climate goals
California’s new $7.3 billion grid modernization plan is a crucial step in furthering its ambitious climate goals. The board of governors for the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), the state’s grid operator, recently approved a strategy to build thousands of miles of new high-voltage transmission lines.
Mixed-Use | Jun 6, 2023
Public-private partnerships crucial to central business district revitalization
Central Business Districts are under pressure to keep themselves relevant as they face competition from new, vibrant mixed-use neighborhoods emerging across the world’s largest cities.
Multifamily Housing | Jun 6, 2023
Minnesota expected to adopt building code that would cut energy use by 80%
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is expected to soon sign a bill that would change the state’s commercial building code so that new structures would use 80% less energy when compared to a 2004 baseline standard. The legislation aims for full implementation of the new code by 2036.
Healthcare Facilities | Jun 5, 2023
Modernizing mental health care in emergency departments: Improving patient outcomes
In today’s mental health crisis, there is a widespread shortage of beds to handle certain populations. Patients may languish in the ED for hours or days before they can be linked to an appropriate inpatient program.