They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Nov 2, 2011
CRSI’s Manual of Standard Practice now available
This resource contains information on recommended industry practices for estimating, detailing, fabricating, and placing reinforcing steel for reinforced concrete construction.
| Nov 2, 2011
John W. Baumgarten Architect, P.C, wins AIA Long Island Chapter‘s Healthcare Award for Renovation
The two-story lobby features inlaid marble floors and wood-paneled wainscoting that pays homage to the building’s history.
| Nov 2, 2011
Jacobs announces acquisition of KlingStubbins
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. announced that it has acquired KlingStubbins. Officials did not disclose the terms of the agreement. Jacobs' acquisition of KlingStubbins, which has approximately 500 employees located in the United States and Asia, particularly enhances the Company's capabilities in design. KlingStubbins provides professional services in planning, architecture, engineering and interiors.
| Nov 1, 2011
Perkins Eastman opens office in San Francisco
Located at 23 Geary Street in the One Kearny building, the 8,100 sf office will accommodate a growing staff of 45.
| Nov 1, 2011
Sasaki expands national sports design studio
Sasaki has also added Stephen Sefton to the sports design studio as senior associate.
| Nov 1, 2011
Holcim awards winners for North America announced
A socio-architectural project to create regional food-gathering nodes and a logistics network in Canada's high arctic territory won the top prize for North America of $100,000.
| Oct 27, 2011
iProspect selects VLK Architects for new office design
Company growth prompted iProspect to make the decision to move to a new space.
| Oct 27, 2011
ASSA Abloy, MAXXESS Systems announce U.S. Aperio integration
Aperio will integrate with MAXXESS's eAXxess and Efusion Event Management Software packages.