They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Feb 25, 2013
First look: Google's new HQ is engineered for creative collisions
The new California "Googleplex" will be engineered to make sure no Google employee will be more than a 2.5 minute walk away from any other.
| Feb 25, 2013
AISC seeks proposals for development of BIM best practices guide
The American Institute of Steel Construction seeks assistance from BIM users in identifying and documenting best practices to facilitate the long-term standardization of BIM in structural steel construction.
| Feb 22, 2013
Westlake Reed Leskosky will renovate training center for Cleveland Browns
Local firm Westlake Reed Leskosky has been chosen to design renovations to the Cleveland Browns' Training and Administrative Complex in Berea, Ohio.
| Feb 22, 2013
Starbucks pilot program rolls out small, modular stores
Coffee giant Starbucks is rolling out mini-stores with maximum local flavor, as part of an international pilot program.
| Feb 22, 2013
Defense department report: Green design saves taxpayers money
An independent report on energy efficiency and sustainability standards used by the Pentagon for military construction affirms the value of LEED-certified high performing buildings to America’s military and U.S. taxpayers.
| Feb 22, 2013
Detroit project would bring 'fairytale forest' to riverfront
A proposal by atelierWHY to create a heavily wooded park on the downtown riverfront has taken first place in the juried Detroit By Design competition.
| Feb 22, 2013
Zaha Hadid to help plan new London-area airport hub
The Mayor of London has appointed Zaha Hadid Architects to help create a major new airport in southeastern England.
| Feb 21, 2013
AIA College of Fellows awards 2013 Latrobe Prize for 'The City of 7 Billion'
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) College of Fellows has awarded the 2013 Latrobe Prize of $100,000 for the proposal, “The City of 7 Billion.”
| Feb 21, 2013
BD+C's 2011 White Paper: Zero and Net-Zero Energy Buildings + Homes
We submit our eighth White Paper on Sustainability in the hope that it will inspire architects, engineers, contractors, building owners, developers, building product manufacturers, environmentalists, policymakers, government officials, corporate executives, officeholders, and the public to foster the development of net-zero energy buildings and homes.
| Feb 21, 2013
BD+C's 2008 White Paper: Green Buildings + Climate Change
In this White Paper, we provide concrete ways in which AEC professionals can have a positive role in addressing climate change.