They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Sep 13, 2013
Loews Hotels & Resorts announces major cross-portfolio upgrades
Loews Hotels & Resorts is currently in the midst of a major growth and property redesign initiative, reflecting a strong national trend in hospitality renovation.
| Sep 13, 2013
Video: Arup offers tour of world's first algae-powered building
Dubbed BIQ house, the building features a bright green façade consisting of hollow glass panels filled with algae and water.
| Sep 11, 2013
Inaugural BUILDINGChicago/Greening the Heartland Expo & Conference draws attendees from 27 states
More than 500 attendees from 27 states attended the inaugural BUILDINGChicago/Greening the Heartland Conference, held September 9-11, at the Holiday Inn Chicago Mart Plaza.
| Sep 10, 2013
The new medical office building: 7 things to know about today’s outpatient clinic
Regulatory pressures, economic constraints, and emerging technologies are transforming healthcare. Learn how Building Teams are responding with efficient, appealing, boundary-blurring outpatient buildings.
| Sep 6, 2013
Public Architecture's Day Labor Station: Just the type of 'great idea' we're looking for in the $5,000 Vision U40 competition
Thinking about competing in BD+C's Vision U40 program at next month's U40 Leadership Summit? Here's a good example of the kind of "great idea" we're looking for.
| Sep 6, 2013
U40 Summit featured speaker: Arthur Gensler on how to build a world-class AEC practice
Gensler, founder of the world’s largest architecture firm, will talk about the role of the architect in society, the impact of great design, and the practicalities of starting and running a practice, and will offer advice for today’s young design and construction professionals.
| Sep 4, 2013
Augmented reality: 12 applications for design and construction professionals
Building Design+Construction reached out to AEC professionals who have studied and applied augmented reality and asked them to pinpoint applications that are ripe for the technology. Here’s what they had to offer.
| Sep 4, 2013
Augmented reality goes mainstream: 12 applications for design and construction firms
Thanks to inexpensive mobile devices and increasingly advanced software apps, Building Teams are finally able to bring their BIM models to life on the job site.
| Sep 4, 2013
K-12 school design that pays off for students
More and more educators are being influenced by the Reggio Emilia approach to pedagogy, with its mantra of “environment as the third teacher”—an approach that gives Building Teams a responsibility to pay even closer attention to the special needs of today’s schools.
| Sep 4, 2013
Smart building technology: Talking results at the BUILDINGChicago/ Greening the Heartland show
Recent advancements in technology are allowing owners to connect with facilities as never before, leveraging existing automation systems to achieve cost-effective energy improvements. This BUILDINGChicago presentation will feature Procter & Gamble’s smart building management program.