They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Jan 12, 2014
5 ways virtual modeling can improve facilities management
Improved space management, streamlined maintenance, and economical retrofits are among the ways building owners and facility managers can benefit from building information modeling.
| Jan 11, 2014
Getting to net-zero energy with brick masonry construction [AIA course]
When targeting net-zero energy performance, AEC professionals are advised to tackle energy demand first. This AIA course covers brick masonry's role in reducing energy consumption in buildings.
| Jan 10, 2014
What the states should do to prevent more school shootings
To tell the truth, I didn’t want to write about the terrible events of December 14, 2012, when 20 children and six adults were gunned down at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn. I figured other media would provide ample coverage, and anything we did would look cheap or inappropriate. But two things turned me around.
| Jan 10, 2014
Special Report: K-12 school security in the wake of Sandy Hook
BD+C's exclusive five-part report on K-12 school security offers proven design advice, technology recommendations, and thoughtful commentary on how Building Teams can help school districts prevent, or at least mitigate, a Sandy Hook on their turf.
| Jan 10, 2014
Resiliency, material health among top AEC focuses for 2014: Perkins+Will survey
Architectural giant Perkins+Will recently surveyed its staff of 1,500 design pros to forcast hot trends in the AEC field for 2014. The resulting Design + Insights Survey reflects a global perspective.
| Jan 9, 2014
How security in schools applies to other building types
Many of the principles and concepts described in our Special Report on K-12 security also apply to other building types and markets.
| Jan 9, 2014
16 recommendations on security technology to take to your K-12 clients
From facial recognition cameras to IP-based door hardware, here are key technology-related considerations you should discuss with your school district clients.
| Jan 9, 2014
Harley Ellis Devereaux, BFHL Architects announce merger
Effective January 1, 2014, Ralph Lotito and Brett Paloutzian have merged BFHL, comprising 15 healthcare architects, with Harley Ellis Devereaux. A national architecture and engineering firm in practice since 1908, Harley Ellis Devereaux has offices in Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco, CA.
| Jan 9, 2014
Special report: Can design prevent another Sandy Hook?
Our experts say no, but it could save lives. In this report, they offer recommendations on security design you can bring to your K-12 clients to prevent, or at least mitigate, a Sandy Hook on their turf.
| Jan 8, 2014
Dan Noble succeeds H. Ralph Hawkins as president/CEO of HKS
H. Ralph Hawkins, FAIA, FACHA, LEED AP,current chairman, president and CEO, named Dan Noble FAIA, FACHA, LEED AP, his successor as president and CEO, effective January 1, 2014. Jeff Stouffer, AIA, will succeed Craig Beale, FAIA, FACHA, FACHE, as director of the firm's healthcare practice.
