They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Mar 20, 2014
13 dazzling wood building designs [slideshow]
From bold structural glulam designs to striking textured wall and ceiling schemes, these award-winning building projects showcase the design possibilities using wood.
| Mar 20, 2014
Fluor defines the future 7D deliverable without losing sight of real results today
A fascinating client story by Fluor SVP Robert Prieto reminds us that sometimes it’s the simplest details that can bring about real results today—and we shouldn’t overlook them, even as we push to change the future state of project facilitation.
| Mar 19, 2014
Architecture Billings Index shows slight improvement
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported that the February ABI score was 50.7, up slightly from a mark of 50.4 in January.
| Mar 19, 2014
Gehry, Zaha, Foster, Meier: Vote for your top 'starchitect' in this March Madness design legends tourney
Fast Company's Bracket Madness tournament pits 32 designers against each other to see who truly is the world's greatest living designer.
| Mar 19, 2014
Is it time to start selecting your own clients?
Will 2014 be the year that design firms start selecting the clients they want rather than getting in line with competitors to respond to RFPs? That’s the question posed by a recent thought-provoking article.
| Mar 19, 2014
How to develop a healthcare capital project using a 'true north charter'
Because healthcare projects take years to implement, developing a true north charter is essential for keeping the entire team on track and moving in the right direction.
| Mar 18, 2014
6 keys to better healthcare design
Healthcare facility planning and design experts cite six factors that Building Teams need to keep in mind on their next healthcare project.
| Mar 18, 2014
How your AEC firm can win more healthcare projects
Cutthroat competition and the vagaries of the Affordable Healthcare Act are making capital planning a more daunting task than ever. Our experts provide inside advice on how AEC firms can secure more work from hospital systems.
| Mar 18, 2014
Charles Dalluge joins DLR Group as president, COO
CEO Griff Davenport announces addition of Dalluge to executive leadership team
| Mar 17, 2014
Rem Koolhaas explains China's plans for its 'ghost cities'
China's goal, according to Koolhaas, is to de-incentivize migration into already overcrowded cities.