They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Oct 23, 2014
Architecture Billings Index shows strong demand for institutional, mixed-practice design
AIA reported the September ABI score was 55.2, up from a mark of 53.0 in August. This score reflects an increase in design activity.
| Oct 22, 2014
Customization is the key in tomorrow's workplace
The importance of mobility, flexibility, and sustainability in the world of corporate design are already well-established. A newer trend that’s gaining deserved attention is customizability, and how it will look in the coming years, writes GS&P's Leith Oatman.
| Oct 21, 2014
Passive House concept gains momentum in apartment design
Passive House, an ultra-efficient building standard that originated in Germany, has been used for single-family homes since its inception in 1990. Only recently has the concept made its way into the U.S. commercial buildings market.
| Oct 21, 2014
Hartford Hospital plans $150 million expansion for Bone and Joint Institute
The bright-white structures will feature a curvilinear form, mimicking bones and ligament.
| Oct 21, 2014
Norman Foster, Zaha Hadid release plans for resorts in Nanjing and Wuhan, China
Jumeirah Group, a hotel group forming a part of investment group Dubai Holding, has chosen Zaha Hadid and Norman Foster to design two of three of its proposed resorts in Nanjing, Wuhan, and Haikou.
| Oct 21, 2014
Inside LEED v4: The view from the MEP engineering seats
Much of the spirited discussion around LEED v4 has been centered on the Materials & Resources Credit. At least one voice in the wilderness is shouting for greater attention to another huge change in LEED: the shift to ASHRAE 90.1-2010 as the new reference standard for Energy & Atmosphere prerequisites and credits.
| Oct 21, 2014
Perkins Eastman white paper explores state of the senior living industry in the Carolinas
Among the experts interviewed for the white paper, there was a general consensus that the model for continuing-care retirement communities is changing, driven by both the changing consumers and more prevalent global interest on the effects of aging.
| Oct 20, 2014
Singapore Sports Hub claims world's largest free-spanning dome
The retractable roof, which measures a whopping 1,017-feet across, is made from translucent ETFE plastic panels supported with metal rigging that arches over the main pitch.
| Oct 20, 2014
Institute for young innovators breaks ground at the University of Utah
The five-story, 148,000-sf building is designed to function like a student union for entrepreneurs and innovators, with a 20,000-sf “garage” that will be open for any student to attend events, build prototypes, and launch companies.
| Oct 20, 2014
UK's best new building: Everyman Theatre wins RIBA Stirling Prize 2014
The new Everyman Theatre in Liverpool by Haworth Tompkins has won the coveted RIBA Stirling Prize 2014 for the best building of the year. Now in its 19th year, the RIBA Stirling Prize is the UK’s most prestigious architecture prize.
