They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Cultural Facilities | Feb 6, 2015
Architects look to ‘activate’ vacant block in San Diego with shipping container-based park
A team of alumni from the NewSchool of Architecture and Design in San Diego has taken over a 28,500-sf empty city block in that metro to create what they hope will be a revenue-generating urban park.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 6, 2015
Fannie Mae to offer lower interest rates to LEED-certified multifamily properties
For certified properties, Fannie Mae is now granting a 10 basis point reduction in the interest rate of a multifamily refinance, acquisition, or supplemental mortgage loan.
Airports | Feb 6, 2015
Zaha Hadid-designed terminal in Beijing will be world’s largest
The terminal will accommodate 45 million passengers per year, and will be a hub for both air and rail travel.
Codes and Standards | Feb 6, 2015
Obama executive order requires federal construction projects to consider flood damage caused by climate change
To meet the new standard, builders must build two feet above the currently projected elevation for 100-year floods for most projects.
HVAC | Feb 6, 2015
ASHRAE, REHVA publish guide to chilled beam systems
The guide provides tools and advice for designing, commissioning, and operating chilled-beam systems.
Cultural Facilities | Feb 6, 2015
Under the sea: Manmade island functions as artificial reef
The proposed island would allow visitors to view the enormous faux-reef and its accompanying marine life from the water’s surface to its depths, functioning as an educational center and marine life reserve.
Contractors | Feb 6, 2015
Census Bureau: Capital spending by U.S. businesses increased 4.5%
Of the 19 industry sectors covered in the report, only one had a statistically significant year-to-year decrease in capital spending: the utilities sector.
Warehouses | Feb 5, 2015
Self storage facility designed to blend in with Miami Beach's party scene
The plans by architect Gutierrez & Lozano are of a sleek, boutique-looking, 22,500-sf facility at the gateway to the city.
Sponsored | Designers | Feb 5, 2015
3D printing has people in the building and construction industry talking
How can 3D printing affect the building design and construction industry?
Cultural Facilities | Feb 5, 2015
5 developments selected as 'best in urban placemaking'
Falls Park on the Reedy in Greenville, S.C., and the Grand Rapids (Mich.) Downtown Market are among the finalists for the 2015 Rudy Bruner Award for Urban Excellence.
