They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Jul 17, 2015
Japan scraps Zaha Hadid's Tokyo Olympic Stadium project
The rising price tag was one of the downfalls of the 70-meter-tall, 290,000-sm stadium. In 2014, the cost of the project was 163 billion yen, but that rose to 252 billion yen this year.
Cultural Facilities | Jul 16, 2015
Louisville group plans to build world's largest disco ball
The sphere would more than double the size of the current record holder.
Education Facilities | Jul 14, 2015
Chile selects architects for Subantarctic research center
Promoting ecological tourism is one of this facility’s goals
BIM and Information Technology | Jul 14, 2015
New city-modeling software quantifies the movement of urban dwellers
UNA for Rhino 3D helps determine the impact that urban design can have on where pedestrians go.
Industrial Facilities | Jul 14, 2015
Tesla may seek to double size of Gigafactory in Nevada
Tesla Motors purchased an additional 1,200 acres next to the Gigafactory and is looking to buy an additional 350 acres.
BIM and Information Technology | Jul 14, 2015
Nation’s first 'drone park' breaks ground in North Dakota
This is one of six testing sites around the country that are developing flight standards and evaluating the utility of drones for different tasks.
Sponsored | Building Team | Jul 10, 2015
Are you the wrong type of ‘engaged’ leader?
Much of what’s written about employee engagement focuses on how leaders can help their employees become more involved at work. But what about the leaders themselves?
Architects | Jul 9, 2015
NCARB: Record number of aspiring architects on path toward licensure
More than 37,170 design professionals either reported hours through the Intern Development Program or tested for the Architect Registration Examination last year, according to a new NCARB report.
Architects | Jul 7, 2015
Why AEC firms should be cultivating 'visible experts'
A new study pinpoints the true dollar value of having knowledge leaders and market shapers on your team.
Green | Jul 7, 2015
Philips sheds new light on growing fresh food indoors
A research center in The Netherlands is testing the latest techniques in urban farming.
