They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Architects | Aug 19, 2015
Despite dip, architecture billings remain strong
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the July ABI score was 54.7, down a point from a mark of 55.7 in June.
Architects | Aug 17, 2015
Historic power plant converted to modern offices in Minnesota
A landmark power plant in Owatonna, Minn., damaged in a 2010 flood has new life as the headquarters of Owatonna Public Utilities following a renovation by architects Leo A. Daly.
High-rise Construction | Aug 11, 2015
Calatrava's Turning Torso wins CTBUH's 10 Year Award
The 623-foot, 57-story tower was the world's first twisting skyscraper. Completed in 2005, the building, designed by Santiago Calatrava, rotates 90 degrees along its height.
Architects | Aug 11, 2015
Architecture firm compensation trending upwards
Latest AIA compensation survey finds average compensation for staff positions up 3.5 percent from early 2013
Architects | Aug 11, 2015
12 architecture schools join NCARB's 'speedy path to licensure' program
For architecture students, a license to practice may soon be available as early as graduation day
Architects | Aug 10, 2015
HDR expands its Canadian presence through merger with CEI Architecture
Public-private partnerships are expected to be one of the combined entity’s strengths.
Retail Centers | Aug 10, 2015
Walgreens’ flagship in Hawaii harkens back to the island’s fishing culture
A house where canoes were made served as the model for this drug superstore’s design.
Giants 400 | Aug 7, 2015
GOVERNMENT SECTOR GIANTS: Public sector spending even more cautiously on buildings
AEC firms that do government work say their public-sector clients have been going smaller to save money on construction projects, according to BD+C's 2015 Giants 300 report.
Giants 400 | Aug 7, 2015
K-12 SCHOOL SECTOR GIANTS: To succeed, school design must replicate real-world environments
Whether new or reconstructed, schools must meet new demands that emanate from the real world and rapidly adapt to different instructional and learning modes, according to BD+C's 2015 Giants 300 report.
Giants 400 | Aug 7, 2015
MULTIFAMILY AEC GIANTS: Slowdown prompts developers to ask: Will the luxury rentals boom hold?
For the last three years, rental apartments have occupied the hot corner in residential construction, as younger people gravitated toward renting to be closer to urban centers and jobs. But at around 360,000 annual starts, multifamily might be peaking, according to BD+C's 2015 Giants 300 report.
