They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Industry Research | Feb 22, 2016
8 of the most interesting trends from Gensler’s Design Forecast 2016
Technology is running wild in Gensler’s 2016 forecast, as things like virtual reality, "smart" buildings and products, and fully connected online and offline worlds are making their presence felt throughout many of the future's top trends.
Market Data | Feb 17, 2016
AIA reports slight contraction in Architecture Billings Index
Multifamily residential sector improving after sluggish 2015.
Architects | Feb 17, 2016
Developing a strategy for getting paid on time
Though talking about money can be difficult, creating and following a clear plan for getting paid is essential for your firm to thrive, writes Steve Whitehorn of Whitehorn Financial.
Architects | Feb 11, 2016
Stantec agrees to acquire VOA Associates
This deal reflects an industry where consolidation is a strategic necessity for more firms.
Market Data | Feb 11, 2016
AIA: Continued growth expected in nonresidential construction
The American Institute of Architects’ semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast indicates a growth of 8% in construction spending in 2016, and 6.7% the following year.
Architects | Feb 11, 2016
AIA elevates 149 members and eight international architects to the College of Fellows
AIA Fellowship recognizes significant contributions to profession of architecture and society.
Architects | Feb 9, 2016
Architect faces prison sentence for VA medical center contract conspiracy
Admits to using inside information to gain VA contracts in Cleveland
Game Changers | Feb 5, 2016
London’s ’shadowless’ towers
Using advanced design computation, a design team demonstrates how to ‘erase’ a building’s shadows.
High-rise Construction | Feb 2, 2016
This tall tower will lower your heart rate
Matthias Olt, Associate Vice President at CallisonRTKL, discusses new ways to improve individual health and well-being through tower design.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 1, 2016
Top 10 kitchen design trends for 2016
Charging stations, built-in coffeemakers, and pet stations—these are among the top kitchen design trends for the coming year, according to a new survey of kitchen and bath designers by the National Kitchen & Bath Association.