They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Aug 10, 2016
Top 90 Retail Architecture Firms
Gensler, GreenbergFarrow, and MG2 top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest retail sector architecture and A/E firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 10, 2016
DATA CENTER GIANTS: Information overload is pushing the limits of mission-critical facilities
Streamlined design and delivery approaches for individual business enterprises and co-location facilities are being born out of the necessity to bring new capacity online as quickly as possible.
| Aug 10, 2016
Top 30 Data Center Architecture Firms
Gensler, Corgan, and HDR top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest data center sector architecture and A/E firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 10, 2016
UNIVERSITY GIANTS: Facing money woes, the nation's colleges double down on innovative ideas
Budget constraints are compelling some public institutions to pursue alternative methods of financing their major building projects.
| Aug 9, 2016
Top 100 University Architecture Firms
Gensler, Perkins+Will, and CannonDesign top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest university sector architecture and A/E firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
Reconstruction & Renovation | Aug 9, 2016
Renascent architecture: Demolished Frank Lloyd Wright structures get new life
The Frank Lloyd Wright Revival Initiative is set to begin its reconstruction efforts with the Banff Pavilion, which was demolished in 1939.
Building Team | Aug 4, 2016
Thought leaders from architecture, engineering and construction to meet at 2016 Bluebeam eXtreme Conference
Bluebeam users inspire technological change through shared insights and training at three-day event.
| Aug 4, 2016
MULTIFAMILY BUILDING GIANTS: Rental complexes focus on affordability, accessibility, and specialty amenities
To address the affordability problem and attract tenants, owners and developers are experimenting with smaller and smaller units, amenity-rich environments, and “co-living” concepts.
| Aug 4, 2016
Top 110 Multifamily Architecture Firms
Perkins Eastman, CallisonRTKL, and Solomon Cordwell Buenz top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest multifamily building sector architecture and A/E firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 3, 2016
GREEN BUILDING GIANTS: Sustainability leaders turn to wellness and technology to get an edge
AEC leaders in green building are stepping up to a higher level of innovation and to be a green leader today, you have to dig deeper into data.