They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Architects | Apr 19, 2017
Tour Zaha Hadid, Frank Gehry architecture with Google Earth
Google Earth’s new ‘Voyager’ feature allows people to take interactive guided tours.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 18, 2017
Three multifamily, three specialized housing projects among 14 recipients of the AIA’s 2017 Housing Awards
2017 marks the 17th year the AIA has rewarded projects and architects with the Housing Awards.
Projects | Apr 17, 2017
BD+C's 2017 Design Innovation Report
Façades that would make Dr. Seuss smile, living walls, and exterior wall space that doubles as gallery space are all represented in this year's BD+C Design Innovation Report.
Healthcare Facilities | Apr 13, 2017
The rise of human performance facilities
A new medical facility in Chicago focuses on sustaining its customers’ human performance.
Laboratories | Apr 13, 2017
How to design transformative scientific spaces? Put people first
While most labs are designed to achieve that basic functionality, a transformational lab environment prioritizes a science organization’s most valuable assets: its people.
Hotel Facilities | Apr 12, 2017
Hotels embrace place
Today’s hospitality environments emphasize unique, localized experiences to attract and engage guests.
Green | Apr 11, 2017
Passivhaus for high-rises? Research demonstrates viability of the stringent standards for tall residential buildings
A new study conducted by FXFOWLE shows that Building Teams can meet stringent Passivhaus performance standards with minimal impact to first cost and aesthetics.
Curtain Wall | Apr 11, 2017
Masters of geometry
Three firms that specialize in façades that curve, twist, and turn see themselves as artisans of the unthinkable.
Office Buildings | Apr 10, 2017
Innovation lab makes developing eye care solutions a collaborative affair
The Shop East innovation lab presents 13,500 sf of workspace across two floors with an emphasis on collaboration.