They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Retail Centers | Feb 20, 2018
Is there a future in retail banking? Part II
It is critical to not view the physical branch as just another sales channel, but as an important touchpoint along a customer’s journey.
Architects | Feb 15, 2018
AIASF Equity by Design to launch 2018 Equity in Architecture Survey
AIA San Francisco (AIASF) and the Equity by Design Committee, launched the third national Equity in Architecture Survey on February 12, 2018. Building upon the survey conducted in 2016, the third survey will further advance the national movement for equitable practice in the profession.
Urban Planning | Feb 14, 2018
6 urban design trends to watch in 2018
2017 saw the continuation of the evolution of expectations on the part of consumers, developers, office workers, and cities.
Office Buildings | Feb 13, 2018
Office market vacancy rate at 10-year low
Cautious development and healthy absorption across major markets contributed to the decline in vacancy, according to a new Transwestern report.
Architects | Feb 12, 2018
AIA selects seven individuals to receive the 2018 Associates Award
The recipients will be honored at the AIA Conference on Architecture 2018 in New York City.
Architects | Feb 9, 2018
AIA's 2018 Young Architects Award honors 18 recipients
The Young Architects Award recipients will be honored at the AIA Conference on Architecture 2018 in New York City.
Architects | Feb 8, 2018
Three ways cities could evolve 2018
Cities change constantly, but given the numerous disruptive factors spanning technology, policy, climate and more that will impact 2018 – it could prove to be a year of dynamic change for our urban fabric.
Architects | Feb 7, 2018
8 inefficiencies in the architecture + design industry (and possible solutions)
Matthew Rosenberg has identified 8 major inefficiencies in the architecture and design industry, as well as a solution for each of them.
Architects | Feb 5, 2018
Little names new Corporate President and COO
International architecture and design firm Little has appointed Carolyn Rickard-Brideau as its new Corporate President, and Charles Todd as its Chief Operating Officer.
Architects | Feb 1, 2018
How to generate architecture leads
One of the first steps to increasing leads for your design firm is to acknowledge that all leads are not equal, writes Hinge’s Karl Feldman.
