They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Office Buildings | Jul 17, 2018
Transwestern report: Office buildings near transit earn 65% higher lease rates
Analysis of 15 major metros shows the average rent in central business districts was $43.48/sf for transit-accessible buildings versus $26.01/sf for car-dependent buildings.
Architects | Jul 10, 2018
AEC marketing fundamentals can still have a role in winning new business
In our Internet-fueled world, it’s easy to get distracted by the latest online tools. But the boring stuff is still important, and you don’t want to lose sight of old-school techniques that are just as persuasive now as they were a few decades ago.
Adaptive Reuse | Jul 9, 2018
Work, park, live: Inside Cincinnati’s parking garage turned lifestyle hotel
The Summit hotel and conference center is a converted parking garage that was once a factory.
Architects | Jun 28, 2018
Designing successful maker spaces
The challenge is to design makerspaces that work, spaces that function as a tool for educators to produce better students.
Architects | Jun 27, 2018
Steven A. Lichtenberger joins Leo A Daly as President
He will lead the firm’s global planning, architecture, engineering, and interiors practice worldwide.
Accelerate Live! | Jun 24, 2018
Watch all 19 Accelerate Live! talks on demand
BD+C’s second annual Accelerate Live! AEC innovation conference (May 10, 2018, Chicago) featured talks on AI for construction scheduling, regenerative design, the micro-buildings movement, post-occupancy evaluation, predictive visual data analytics, digital fabrication, and more. Take in all 19 talks on demand.
Building Team | Jun 22, 2018
What owners should know before choosing the design-build project delivery method
Outside of drawing up a well-written contract, owners often overlook a key attribute that can significantly impact the success of a design-build project, writes Skanska’s Julie Hyson.
Architects | Jun 14, 2018
Chicago Architecture Center sets Aug. 31 as opening date
The Center is located at 111 E. Wacker Drive.
Multifamily Housing | Jun 13, 2018
Multifamily visionaries: KTGY’s extraordinary expectations
KTGY Architecture + Planning keeps pushing the boundaries of multifamily housing design in the U.S., Asia, and the Middle East.
| Jun 11, 2018
Accelerate Live! talk: Regenerative design — When sustainability is not enough
In this 15-minute talk at BD+C’s Accelerate Live! conference (May 10, 2018, Chicago), HMC’s Eric Carbonnier poses the question: What if buildings could actually rejuvenate ecosystems?