They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Sep 5, 2019
Top 110 Hotel Sector Architecture Firms for 2019
Gensler, WATG, HKS, HBG Design, and Steelman Partners top the rankings of the nation's largest hotel sector architecture and architecture engineering (AE) firms, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2019 Giants 300 Report.
Architects | Sep 5, 2019
AIA launches landmark initiative to drive climate action
AIA Board of Directors approves member-led resolution to rally architects in mitigating and adapting the built environment.
Giants 400 | Sep 3, 2019
Top 140 K-12 School Sector Architecture Firms for 2019
DLR Group, PBK, Huckabee, Stantec, and VLK Architects top the rankings of the nation's largest K-12 school sector architecture and architecture engineering (AE) firms, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2019 Giants 300 Report.
Market Data | Sep 3, 2019
Nonresidential construction spending slips in July 2019, but still surpasses $776 billion
Construction spending declined 0.3% in July, totaling $776 billion on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis.
Giants 400 | Aug 30, 2019
2019 K-12 School Giants Report: 360-degree learning among top school design trends for 2019
K-12 school districts are emphasizing practical, hands-on experience and personalized learning.
Giants 400 | Aug 28, 2019
Top 35 Data Center Architecture Firms for 2019
Corgan, HDR, Gensler, AECOM, and Page top the rankings of the nation's largest data center sector architecture and architecture engineering (AE) firms, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2019 Giants 300 Report.
AEC Innovators | Aug 27, 2019
7 AEC industry disruptors and their groundbreaking achievements
From building prefab factories in the sky to incubating the next generation of AEC tech startups, our 2019 class of AEC Innovators demonstrates that the industry is poised for a shakeup. Meet BD+C’s 2019 AEC Innovators.
Giants 400 | Aug 16, 2019
2019 Healthcare Giants Report: The ‘smart hospital’ is on the horizon
These buildings perform functions like a medical practitioner. This and more healthcare sector trends from Building Design+Construction's 2019 Giants 300 Report.
AEC Innovators | Aug 15, 2019
Oracle’s replica of a construction jobsite creates an immersive environment for AEC professionals
The Oracle Construction and Engineering Innovation Lab allows visitors to walk through five different stages of construction work, to test new AEC technologies and training techniques.
Giants 400 | Aug 15, 2019
Top 140 Multifamily Sector Architecture Firms for 2019
Humphreys & Partners, KTGY, SCB, CallisonRTKL, and Perkins Eastman top the rankings of the nation's largest multifamily sector architecture and architecture engineering (AE) firms, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2019 Giants 300 Report.
