They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Modular Building | Feb 16, 2020
On the West Coast, prefab gains ground for speedier construction
Gensler has been working with component supplier Clark Pacific on several projects.
AEC Tech | Feb 13, 2020
Exclusive research: Download the final report for BD+C's Giants 300 Technology and Innovation Study
This survey of 130 of the nation's largest architecture, engineering, and construction firms tracks the state of AEC technology adoption and innovation initiatives at the AEC Giants.
Office Buildings | Feb 11, 2020
Forget Class A: The opportunity is with Class B and C office properties
There’s money to be made in rehabbing Class B and Class C office buildings, according to a new ULI report.
Architects | Feb 6, 2020
NBBJ acquires immersive technology design studio ESI Design
NBBJ has acquired experience design studio ESI Design. The acquisition signals a new era where buildings will be transformed into immersive and interactive digital experiences that engage and delight.
Sponsored | HVAC | Feb 3, 2020
Reliable Building Systems Increase Net Operating Income by Retaining Tenants
Tenants increasingly expect a well-crafted property that feels unique, authentic, and comfortable—with technologically advanced systems and spaces that optimize performance and encourage collaboration and engagement. The following guidance will help owners and property managers keep tenants happy.
Architects | Jan 29, 2020
Frank Lloyd Wright’s architecture school is closing
The school was established in 1932.
Libraries | Jan 23, 2020
Information or community center: The next generation of libraries must be both
Are libraries still relevant in a digital world?
Green | Jan 10, 2020
How the new EC3 tool raises the bar on collective action
Nearly 50 AEC industry organizations partnered to develop the groundbreaking Embodied Carbon in Construction Calculator.
Architects | Jan 9, 2020
AIA selects recipients for the 2020 Regional & Urban Design Awards
The 2020 Regional & Urban Design program recognizes the best in urban design, regional and city planning and community development.
Building Technology | Jan 7, 2020
Tariff whiplash for bifacial solar modules
Bifacial solar systems offer many advantages over traditional systems.