They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Sponsored | BD+C University Course | Apr 19, 2022
Multi-story building systems and selection criteria
This course outlines the attributes, functions, benefits, limits, and acoustic qualities of composite deck slabs. It reviews the three primary types of composite systems that represent the full range of long-span composite floor systems and examines the criteria for their selection, design, and engineering.
Building Team | Apr 18, 2022
Shive-Hattery Acquires WSM Architects
Shive-Hattery announces that it has acquired WSM Architects, Inc., a 13-person architecture firm in Tucson, Arizona.
University Buildings | Apr 18, 2022
SmithGroup to design new Univ. of Colorado Denver engineering, design, computing building
The University of Colorado Denver selected SmithGroup to design a new engineering, design, and computing building that will serve as anchor of new downtown innovation district.
Building Team | Apr 15, 2022
Frank Gehry to design his largest building yet for his hometown of Toronto
Famed architect Frank Gehry will design his largest building to date for his hometown of Toronto, Canada.
Healthcare Facilities | Apr 14, 2022
Healthcare construction veteran creates next-level IPD process for hospital projects
Can integrated project delivery work without incentives for building team members? Denton Wilson thinks so.
Industrial Facilities | Apr 14, 2022
JLL's take on the race for industrial space
In the previous decade, the inventory of industrial space couldn’t keep up with demand that was driven by the dual surges of the coronavirus and online shopping. Vacancies declined and rents rose. JLL has just published a research report on this sector called “The Race for Industrial Space.” Mehtab Randhawa, JLL’s Americas Head of Industrial Research, shares the highlights of a new report on the industrial sector's growth.
High-rise Construction | Apr 14, 2022
Seattle’s high-rise convention center nears completion
The new Washington State Convention Center Summit Building—billed as the first high-rise convention center in North America—is on track to complete most of its construction later this year.
Building Team | Apr 14, 2022
TLC Engineering Solutions, Inc. acquires Moye I.T. Consulting, LLC
TLC Engineering Solutions, Inc. (TLC) is excited to announce that Moye I.T. Consulting, LLC (Moye Consulting) has joined the TLC team, expanding the breadth of its IT and Technology capabilities, as well as its national portfolio.
Wood | Apr 13, 2022
Mass timber: Multifamily’s next big building system
Mass timber construction experts offer advice on how to use prefabricated wood systems to help you reach for the heights with your next apartment or condominium project.
AEC Tech | Apr 13, 2022
Morphosis designs EV charging station for automaker Genesis
LA-based design and architecture firm Morphosis has partnered with automotive luxury brand Genesis to bring their signature brand and styling, attention-to-detail, and seamless customer experience to the design of Electric Vehicle Charging (EVC) Stations.
