They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Codes and Standards | Jul 22, 2022
Hurricane-resistant construction may be greatly undervalued
New research led by an MIT graduate student at the school’s Concrete Sustainability Hub suggests that the value of buildings constructed to resist wind damage in hurricanes may be significantly underestimated.
School Construction | Jul 22, 2022
School integrating conventional medicine with holistic principles blends building and landscape
Design of the new Alice L. Walton School of Medicine in Bentonville, Ark., aims to blend the building and landscape, creating connections with the surrounding woodlands and the Ozark Mountains.
Market Data | Jul 21, 2022
Architecture Billings Index continues to stabilize but remains healthy
Architecture firms reported increasing demand for design services in June, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Market Data | Jul 21, 2022
Despite deteriorating economic conditions, nonresidential construction spending projected to increase through 2023
Construction spending on buildings is projected to increase just over nine percent this year and another six percent in 2023, according to a new report from the American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Mixed-Use | Jul 21, 2022
Former Los Angeles Macy’s store converted to mixed-use commercial space
Work to convert the former Westside Pavilion Macy's department store in West Los Angeles to a mixed-use commercial campus recently completed.
Building Team | Jul 20, 2022
San Francisco overtakes Tokyo as the world’s most expensive city for construction
San Francisco has overtaken Tokyo as the world’s most expensive city for construction, according to a new report from Turner & Townsend.
Libraries | Jul 20, 2022
Canada to open one of the world’s largest library and archive facilities
When it opens in 2026, Ādisōke is expected to be one of the largest library and archive facilities in the world.
Architects | Jul 19, 2022
Perkins Eastman Bolsters Its Dallas Studio with 5 Dynamic New Principals
Seasoned staff bring talent, experience, and enthusiasm to expand firm.
Energy-Efficient Design | Jul 19, 2022
All is not lost: 3 ways architects can respond to the Supreme Court’s EPA ruling
The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling to limit the Environmental Protection Agency’s power to regulate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from power plants dealt a significant blow to our ability to fight the climate crisis with federal policy.
Office Buildings | Jul 19, 2022
Austin adaptive reuse project transforms warehouse site into indoor-outdoor creative office building
Fifth and Tillery, an adaptive reuse project, has revitalized a post-industrial site in East Austin, Texas.