“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
| Mar 13, 2012
Commercial glazer Harmon expanding into Texas
Company expanding into the Texas market with a new office in Dallas and a satellite facility in Austin.
| Mar 13, 2012
Worker office space to drop below 100-sf in five years
The average for all companies for square feet per worker in 2017 will be 151 sf, compared to 176 sf, and 225 sf in 2010.
| Mar 12, 2012
Improving the performance of existing commercial buildings: the chemistry of sustainable construction
Retrofitting our existing commercial buildings is one of the key steps to overcoming the economic and environmental challenges we face.
| Mar 7, 2012
Firestone iPad app offers touch technology
Free app provides a preview of Firestone’s Roots to Rooftop Building Envelope Solution with an overview of all the products from ground and stormwater management solutions, to complete wall panel and commercial roofing system applications.
| Mar 7, 2012
LEO A DALY opens new office in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Jay N. Kline, Regional Manager – Saudi Arabia, to lead new office.
| Mar 7, 2012
Turner appointed Batson-Cook CFO and treasurer
Cecil G. Hood to continue in advisory role.
| Mar 7, 2012
Thornton Tomasetti names Dowdall VP of Kansas City office
Dowdall will be responsible for supporting the Property Loss Consulting, Building Performance and Building Sustainability practices nationally.
| Mar 7, 2012
LEO A DALY selected to design Minnesota Fallen Firefighters Memorial
The bronze, figurative sculpture of a firefighter rescuing a child, which is currently on display at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport, is lit by natural light through a circular void in the monolith.