“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
| Apr 19, 2012
KTGY Group’s Arista Uptown Apartments in Broomfield, Colo. completed
First of eight buildings highlights unique amenities.
| Apr 19, 2012
Nauset begins work on $20M Joint Forces HQ at Hanscom AFB
3D imaging key to project timetable and cost containment.
| Apr 19, 2012
HBD Construction names Steven Meeks vice president
Meeks will provide expertise for the company in its many diverse areas of construction projects including health care, senior living, education and retail.
| Apr 18, 2012
Lafarge moving North American headquarters to Illinois
Lafarge CEO John Stull says the factors in their decision were location in the Midwest and area transportation.
| Apr 18, 2012
Positive conditions persist for Architecture Billings Index
The AIA reported the March ABI score was 50.4, following a mark of 51.0 in February; greatest demand is for commercial building projects.
| Apr 18, 2012
Syska Hennessy re-launches Information and Communication Technology practice
The ICT practice will focus a blend of products including Information Technology, Security, Audiovisual, Building Automation, Fire Life Safety, Medical Communications and Intelligent Building Systems.
| Apr 18, 2012
Perkins+Will designs new complex for Johns Hopkins Hosptial
The Charlotte R. Bloomberg Children’s Center and the Sheikh Zayed Tower create transformative patient-centric care.
| Apr 18, 2012
BBS Architects & Engineers acquires Ward Associates
The merged companies’ on-going project portfolio valued at $220 million.
| Apr 17, 2012
Princeton Review releases “Guide to 322 Green Colleges”
The guide profiles 322 institutions of higher education in the U.S. and Canada that demonstrate notable commitments to sustainability in their academic offerings, campus infrastructure, activities and career preparation.
| Apr 17, 2012
FMI report examines federal construction trends
Given the rapid transformations occurring in the federal construction sector, FMI examines the key forces accelerating these changes, as well as their effect on the industry.
