“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
| Oct 4, 2012
HMC Architects in service to the community
HMC employees give back to their communities through toy drives and fundraising efforts like CANstruction, which benefits local food banks.
| Oct 4, 2012
Career development, workplace environment programs key to retention at HMC Architects
Architecture firm take a multifaceted approach to professional development.
| Oct 4, 2012
Foundation tightens HMC Architects bond with local communities
Founded in 2009 with an initial endowment of $1.9 million, HMC’s nonprofit Designing Futures Foundation (DFF) has donated about $230,000 in its three years of existence, including $105,000 in scholarships to California students. The grants help promising high schoolers with an interest in architecture, design, engineering, education, or healthcare pay for expenses like test preparation services, computers, and college entrance exam fees and tuition. The scholarships can be extended for up to five years of college.
| Oct 4, 2012
Gilbane publishes Fall 2012 construction industry economic report
Report outlines fluctuation in construction spending; predicts continued movement toward recovery.
| Oct 3, 2012
Fifth public comment period now open for update to USGBC's LEED Green Building Program
LEED v4 drafts and the public comment tool are now available on the newly re-launched, re-envisioned USGBC.org website.
| Oct 2, 2012
Mirvish and Gehry unveil conceptual design to transform Toronto’s entertainment district
Reimagining of King Street Entertainment District supports Toronto’s cultural corridor.
| Oct 2, 2012
Dow Business Services Center building named 2012 “America’s Best Buildings of the Year” winner
Building constructed with air sealing and insulation products from Dow Building Solutions.
| Oct 2, 2012
Bernards working on project at L.A. White Memorial Medical Center
The new facility is a $15-million, 41,000-sf concrete structure which includes three stories of medical office space atop a three-level parking garage.
| Oct 1, 2012
Tyco completes separation process, now largest pure-play fire protection and security business
Tyco Integrated Security focused on delivering security solutions to commercial businesses.
| Sep 28, 2012
Seattle is home to first LEED-certified modular radiation center
By using modular construction and strategic site design, RAD Medical Systems built the first radiation center to receive LEED certification.