“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
| Apr 22, 2013
Top 10 green building projects for 2013 [slideshow]
The AIA's Committee on the Environment selected its top ten examples of sustainable architecture and green design solutions that protect and enhance the environment.
| Apr 19, 2013
Must see: Shell of gutted church on stilts, 40 feet off the ground
Construction crews are going to extremes to save the ornate brick façade of the Provo (Utah) Tabernacle temple, which was ravaged by a fire in December 2010.
| Apr 18, 2013
Survey seeks info from managers of high-tech facilities
The International Institute for Sustainable Laboratories (I2SL), and Laney College in Oakland California, a National Science Foundation-funded Building Efficiency for a Sustainable Tomorrow (BEST) Center, are collaborating to identify education and training needs and strategies for high-tech facility operators.
| Apr 18, 2013
SOM, CASE team up to launch crowd-sourced apps library
SOM and CASE have formally launched AEC-APPS, the first crowd-sourced, web-based library for applications used by architects, engineers and construction professionals. This is a one-of-a-kind initiative in the AEC Industry and is a non-profit online community that allows digital tool users and toolmakers to share ideas, tips and resources.
| Apr 17, 2013
Frank Lloyd Wright's Park Avenue showroom demolished
New York loses another architectural gem by Frank Lloyd Wright as new owner razes auto showroom.
| Apr 17, 2013
First look: Renzo Piano's glass-domed motion pictures museum
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences last week released preliminary plans for its $300 million Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences museum in Los Angeles, designed by Renzo Piano and local architect Zoltan Pali.
| Apr 16, 2013
5 projects that profited from insulated metal panels
From an orchid-shaped visitor center to California’s largest public works project, each of these projects benefited from IMP technology.
| Apr 16, 2013
AIA/NCARB survey shows rosier picture for emerging professionals
In 2010, the AIA/NCARB Internship and Career Survey of emerging professionals took a snapshot of young designers during a time ofintense economic contraction, when they were often the first to suffer. But in the two years since, emerging professionals have begun experiencing a rebound.
| Apr 15, 2013
Seattle school certified as world's fourth Living Building
Bertschi School, an independent elementary school in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Seattle, Wash., is now home to the first Living Building on the West Coast and the world’s fourth fully-certified Living Building.