“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
| Aug 20, 2013
40 Under 40 retrospective: ‘U40s’ take on continuing ed, snake’s blood
Every month we’ll be touching base with past 40 Under 40 honorees to see what’s been happening in their professional and personal lives since winning the award. This month: An accomplished author of test-prep books and an architect who headed to China when the American economy turned sour.
| Aug 20, 2013
As costs rise, Building Teams turn to novel energy-saving schemes for data centers [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Shrinking IT budgets and rising operational costs have led data center operators and corporate clients to scrutinize project budgets. As a result, AEC firms are being tasked with finding solutions for lowering the overall cost of computing and operating and maintaining the facilities.
| Aug 20, 2013
Top Data Center Construction Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
DPR, Balfour Beatty, Holder head Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest data center contractors and construction management firms in the U.S.
| Aug 20, 2013
What you missed: Last week's top construction market news
AIA, Gilbane, DBIA, and USGBC released major reports last week. Here's a roundup of the latest market news for the nonresidential construction industry.
| Aug 20, 2013
First look: $550 million Billie Jean King National Tennis Center renovation
The United States Tennis Association has announced its plans for a sweeping transformation of the USTABillie Jean King National Tennis Center that will include the construction of two new stadiums, as well as a retractable roof over Arthur Ashe Stadium. The transformation will be implemented in three phases to begin at the conclusion of the 2013 US Open, with the goal of overall completion by the 2018 US Open.
| Aug 19, 2013
The secret to creativity is… a messy desk?!
Anyone whose desk resembles a war zone can proudly cite a new scientific study that suggests a messy workspace may actually help people think more creatively and stimulate new ideas.
| Aug 19, 2013
Discovery of hidden asbestos complicates DFW terminal renovations
The finding of more asbestos in Terminal B than expected, and the pending merger of US Airways and the airport’s largest tenant, American Airlines, is causing construction delays on a $2.3 billion Dallas/Fort Worth Airport terminal renovation.
| Aug 19, 2013
Integration of solar panels in building skin seen as key net-zero element
Recent high-profile projects, including stadiums in Brazil for the upcoming World Cup and Summer Olympics and a bank headquarters in the U.K., reflect an effort by designers to adopt building-integrated photovoltaics, or BIPV.
| Aug 16, 2013
Today's workplace design: Is there room for the introvert?
Increasingly, roaming social networks are praised and hierarchical organizations disparaged, as workplaces mimic the freewheeling vibe of the Internet. Research by Susan Cain indicates that the "openness" pendulum may have swung too far.
| Aug 16, 2013
$5,000 in prizes to be awarded at BD+C's U40 Leadership Summit
Do you have the next big idea for improving the performance of buildings and the built environment? BD+C's 3rd Annual U40 Leadership Summit is your chance to shine—and share in $5,000 in prizes.