“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
| Jan 30, 2014
See how architects at NBBJ are using computational design to calculate the best views on projects [video]
In an ideal world, every office employee would have a beautiful view from his or her desk. While no one can make that happen in real life, computational design can help architects maximize views from every angle.
| Jan 30, 2014
The evolving workplace: One designer's inspiration board
"Open office" has been a major buzzword for decades, and like any buzzword, some of the novelty has worn off. I don't believe we will abandon the open office, but I do think we need to focus on providing a dynamic mix of open and closed spaces.
| Jan 30, 2014
How reverse engineering nature can spur design innovation
It’s not enough to copy nature. Today’s designers need a deeper understanding of environmental nuance, from the biome in.
| Jan 30, 2014
What to expect in the metal building industry in 2014
Every year brings changes. This one won’t be any different. We’ll see growth in some areas, declines in others. Here’s a little preview of what we’ll be writing about 2014 when 2015 comes rolling in.
| Jan 30, 2014
What's in store for healthcare capital markets in 2014?
Despite the shake up stemming from the Affordable Care Act, 2014 will be an active year in healthcare capital markets, according to real estate experts from CBRE Healthcare.
| Jan 29, 2014
Richard Meier unveils 'urban courtyard' scheme for Mexico City towers
A grand atrium, reaching some 30 stories, highlights the contemporary, bright-white design scheme unveiled this week by Richard Meier & Partners for a new mixed-use development in Mexico City.
| Jan 29, 2014
Hotel, retail, recreation sectors to lead growth in 2014
AIA's Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 5.8% increase in 2014, led by the hotel, retail, and amusement/recreation sectors.
| Jan 29, 2014
Notre Dame to expand football stadium in largest project in school history
The $400 million Campus Crossroads Project will add more than 750,000 sf of academic, student life, and athletic space in three new buildings attached to the school's iconic football stadium.
| Jan 28, 2014
White Paper: How metal buildings deliver long-term value to schools
A new white paper from Star Building Systems outlines the benefits of metal buildings for public and private school building projects.
| Jan 28, 2014
First Look: BIG's Honeycomb building for Bahamas resort [slideshow]
BIG + HKS + MDA have unveiled the design for the new Honeycomb building and adjacent plaza in The Bahamas – a 175,000-sf residential facility with a private pool on each balcony.