“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
| Mar 24, 2014
Snøhetta unveils plans for serpentine mountain hotel
The winding hotel and apartment building will be built between the mountains and the sea in remote Glåpen, Norway.
| Mar 24, 2014
Frank Lloyd Wright's S.C. Johnson Research Tower to open to the public—32 years after closing
The 14-story tower, one of only two Wright-designed high-rises to be built, has been off limits to the public since its construction in 1950.
Sponsored | | Mar 21, 2014
Kameleon Color paint creates color-changing, iridescent exterior for Exploration Tower at Port Canaveral
Linetec finishes Firestone’s UNA-CLAD panels, achieving a one-of-a-kind, dynamic appearance with the first use of Valspar’s new Kameleon Color
| Mar 21, 2014
Forget wood skyscrapers - Check out these stunning bamboo high-rise concepts [slideshow]
The Singapore Bamboo Skyscraper competition invited design teams to explore the possibilities of using bamboo as the dominant material in a high-rise project for the Singapore skyline.
| Mar 20, 2014
Common EIFS failures, and how to prevent them
Poor workmanship, impact damage, building movement, and incompatible or unsound substrate are among the major culprits of EIFS problems.
| Mar 20, 2014
D.C. breaks ground on $2B mega waterfront development [slideshow]
When complete, the Wharf will feature approximately 3 million sf of new residential, office, hotel, retail, cultural, and public uses, including waterfront parks, promenades, piers, and docks.
| Mar 20, 2014
Fluor defines the future 7D deliverable without losing sight of real results today
A fascinating client story by Fluor SVP Robert Prieto reminds us that sometimes it’s the simplest details that can bring about real results today—and we shouldn’t overlook them, even as we push to change the future state of project facilitation.
| Mar 19, 2014
Is it time to start selecting your own clients?
Will 2014 be the year that design firms start selecting the clients they want rather than getting in line with competitors to respond to RFPs? That’s the question posed by a recent thought-provoking article.
| Mar 19, 2014
How to develop a healthcare capital project using a 'true north charter'
Because healthcare projects take years to implement, developing a true north charter is essential for keeping the entire team on track and moving in the right direction.
| Mar 18, 2014
6 keys to better healthcare design
Healthcare facility planning and design experts cite six factors that Building Teams need to keep in mind on their next healthcare project.