“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
| Jun 25, 2014
Best of Britain: 56 buildings make it to the RIBA Stirling Prize's longlist
The longlist for the 2014 prize includes Foster + Partners' Marseille and London's now-famous Shard, designed by Renzo Piano.
| Jun 25, 2014
Green Building Initiative Announces New Appointments to Board
Glumac consulting engineer CEO Steve Straus and Plum Creek director of real estate Doug Cole join GBI's board of directors.
| Jun 25, 2014
Taking a page from Lean manufacturing for improved design review processes
SPONSORED CONTENT As more building project teams look for ways to collaborate better, technology continues to provide solutions. Yet, as I learned from the experience of one of my customers, choosing the wrong technology can have an underwhelming effect, causing a team to simply swap out old challenges for new ones.
| Jun 24, 2014
Mayor Rahm Emanuel announces plans for a Chicago Architecture Biennial
Chicago's mayor Rahm Emanuel announces plan to hold the Chicago Architecture Biennial in late 2015, intended to rival Venice's Biennale.
| Jun 24, 2014
Intuit begins work on LEED Platinum campus addition
Demolition will begin this week as a precursor to construction of Intuit's new addition to its Mountain View, Calif., campus. The first of two additions, a 185,000-sf building on Marine Way, is expected to begin construction in August.
| Jun 23, 2014
5 new designs unveiled for Make It Right homes at Fort Peck, Mont.
Make It Right, Brad Pitt's foundation that builds homes for people in need, has just revealed five new designs for the Fort Peck (Mont.) Indian Reservation.
| Jun 23, 2014
Gehry's 'glass sail' cultural center for Foundation Louis Vuitton set to open in October
Comissioned by Bernard Arnault, American legendary architect Frank Gehry's newest structure in Paris for Foundation Louis Vuitton will house eleven galleries and an auditorium for performing arts.
| Jun 23, 2014
Power of IPD: Is integrated project delivery truly a transformative delivery model?
Now that many of the first-generation IPD projects have been completed, CBRE Healthcare's Tim McCurley and Stephen Powell ponder the lessons learned and pros and cons of the industry's newest delivery model.
| Jun 23, 2014
Lilker Associates launches Lighting Group; David Cyr announced as Director
New division rounds out building systems services offerings for the Manhattan-based consulting firm.
| Jun 23, 2014
Berlin House of One will accommodate Muslims, Jews, and Christians
The building will rise on the ruins of a 13th-century Christian church that was damaged during WWII and eventually demolished.