“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
| Jul 10, 2014
BioSkin 'vertical sprinkler' named top technical innovation in high-rise design
BioSkin, a system of water-filled ceramic pipes that cools the exterior surface of buildings and their surrounding micro-climates, has won the 2014 Tall Building Innovation Award from the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat.
| Jul 10, 2014
Unique design of Toronto's townhome The Tree House
Plans for a new Toronto townhome brings cutting-edge design.
| Jul 10, 2014
Berkeley Lab opens 'world's most comprehensive building efficiency simulator'
DOE’s new FLEXLAB is a first-of-its-kind simulator that lets users test energy-efficient building systems individually or as an integrated system, under real-world conditions.
| Jul 9, 2014
Dragon-inspired hotel conveys Vietnamese hospitality [2014 Building Team Awards]
An international Building Team unites to create Vietnam’s first JW Marriott luxury property.
| Jul 9, 2014
Harvard Business School to build large-scale conference center
Expected to open in 2018, the facility will combine the elements of a large-scale conference center, a performance space, and an intimate community forum. The new building will be designed by Boston-based William Rawn and Associates.
| Jul 9, 2014
Top U.S. cities for design professionals
Though New York and Los Angeles are often seen as the sole hubs for design jobs, other design epicenters are scattered between the coasts.
| Jul 9, 2014
The one misstep that could be slowing your company’s growth
Change. It’s inevitable. And success for any professional may very well depend on how well we adapt to it. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Jul 9, 2014
First Look: SOM's design for All Aboard Florida Fort Lauderdale rail station
The lightweight and luminous design "responds to its setting and creates a striking infrastructural icon for the city," said SOM Design Partner Roger Duffy.
| Jul 8, 2014
Fast-track naval hospital sparks sea change in project delivery [2014 Building Team Awards]
Through advanced coordination methods and an experimental contract method, the Building Team for Camp Pendleton’s new hospital campus sets a new standard for project delivery.
| Jul 8, 2014
Does Zaha Hadid’s Tokyo Olympic Stadium have a design flaw?
After being criticized for the cost and size of her stadium design for the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo, a Japanese architect points out a major design flaw in the stadium that may endanger the spectators.
