“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
| Oct 9, 2014
Steven Holl's 'intersecting spheres' scheme for Taipei necropolis gets green light
The schematic design has been approved for the 50 000-sm Arrival Hall and Oceanic Pavilion for the Taiwan ChinPaoSan Necropolis.
| Oct 9, 2014
Beyond the bench: Meet the modern laboratory facility
Like office workers escaping from the perceived confines of cubicles, today’s scientists have been freed from the trappings of the typical lab bench, writes Perkins+Will's Bill Harris.
| Oct 8, 2014
New tools for community feedback and action
Too often, members of a community are put into a reactive position, asked for their input only when a major project is proposed. But examples of proactive civic engagement are beginning to emerge, write James Miner and Jessie Bauters.
| Oct 8, 2014
Massive ‘healthcare village’ in Nevada touted as world’s largest healthcare project
The $1.2 billion Union Village project is expected to create 12,000 permanent jobs when completed by 2024.
| Oct 8, 2014
First look: Woods Bagot unveils plans for new Christchurch Convention Center
The locally-inspired building is meant to serve as a symbol of the city's recovery from the earthquake of 2011.
| Oct 8, 2014
Denver transit project wins design-build Project of the Year honor
The Denver Union Station Transit Improvement Project is among 25 projects honored by the Design Build Institute of America for excellence in design-build project delivery.
| Oct 7, 2014
Analysis: Student loans will cost housing industry $83 billion in 2014
More than 410,000 single- and multifamily home sales will be lost in 2014 due to student loan debt, according to analysis by John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
Sponsored | | Oct 7, 2014
Boost efficiency with advanced framing
As architects continue to search for ways to improve building efficiencies, more and more are turning to advanced framing methods, particularly for multifamily and light commercial projects.
| Oct 7, 2014
Economic gains are rallying rents in Raleigh, N.C.
The greater Raleigh, N.C., market appears to be getting back on its feet again, which is good news for rental property owners.
| Oct 7, 2014
Structured, not stirred: The architecture of cocktails [infographic]
In this downloadable graphic, technologist Shaan Hurley dissects 37 cocktails and analyzes their architectural makeup.