“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
| Nov 25, 2014
Behnisch Architekten unveils design for energy-positive building in Boston
The multi-use building for Artists For Humanity that is slated to be the largest energy positive commercial building in New England.
| Nov 25, 2014
Study: 85% of employees dissatisfied with their office environment
A vast majority of office workers feel open floor plans cause multiple distractions and that more private spaces are needed in today's offices, according to a new study by Steelcase and research firm IPSOS.
| Nov 25, 2014
Emerging design and operation strategies for the ambulatory team in transition
As healthcare systems shift their care models to be more responsive to patient-centered care, ambulatory care teams need to be positioned to operate efficiently in their everyday work environments, write CannonDesign Health Practice leaders Tonia Burnette and Mike Pukszta.
| Nov 24, 2014
Midsize construction firms see a brighter business horizon
Uncertainty about government spending clouds an otherwise positive economic outlook among 59 middle market construction firms polled recently by GE Capital.
| Nov 24, 2014
Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill-designed crystalline tower breaks ground in southwestern China
Fitted with an LED façade, the 468-meter Greenland Tower Chengdu will act as a light sculpture for the city of Chengdu.
| Nov 21, 2014
Rental apartment construction soars to 27-year high: WSJ report
The multifamily sector is now outpacing the peak construction rate in the previous housing cycle, in 2006, according to the WSJ.
| Nov 21, 2014
Nonresidential Construction Index rises in fourth quarter
There are a number of reasons for optimism among respondents of FMI's quarterly Nonresidential Construction Index survey, including healthier backlogs and low inflation.
| Nov 21, 2014
NCARB: Number of architects in U.S. grows 1.6% in 2014, surpasses 107,500
The architecture profession continues to grow along with a gradually recovering economy, based on the results of the 2014 Survey of Architectural Registration Boards, conducted by the National Council of Architectural Registration Boards.
| Nov 20, 2014
Lean Led Design: How Building Teams can cut costs, reduce waste in healthcare construction projects
Healthcare organizations are under extreme pressure to reduce costs, writes CBRE Healthcare's Lora Schwartz. Tools like Lean Led Design are helping them cope.
| Nov 19, 2014
The evolution of airport design and construction [infographic]
Safety, consumer demand, and the new economics of flight are three of the major factors shaping how airlines and airport officials are approaching the need for upgrades and renovations, writes Skanska USA's MacAdam Glinn.