“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
Building Team Awards | Jun 1, 2016
Central utility power plant takes center stage at UC San Diego Jacobs Medical Center
An undulating roof, floor-to-ceiling glass, and façade scheme give visual appeal to a plant that serves the 10-story medical center.
Building Team Awards | May 31, 2016
Gonzaga's new student center is a bustling social hub
Retail mall features, comfortable furniture, and floor-to-ceiling glass add vibrancy to the new John J. Hemmingson Center.
Building Team Awards | May 27, 2016
Big police academy trains thousands of New York's finest
The Police Training Academy in Queens, N.Y., consists of a 480,000-sf academic/administration building and a 240,000-sf physical training facility, linked by an aerial pedestrian bridge.
Building Team Awards | May 26, 2016
Cimpress office complex built during historically brutal Massachusetts winter
Lean construction techniques were used to build 275 Wyman Street during a winter that brought more than 100 inches of snow to suburban Boston.
Building Team Awards | May 25, 2016
New health center campus provides affordable care for thousands of Northern Californians
The 38,000-sf, two-level John & Susan Sobrato Campus in Palo Alto is expected to serve 25,000 patients a year by the end of the decade.
Building Team Awards | May 24, 2016
Los Angeles bus depot squeezes the most from a tight site
The Building Team for the MTA Division 13 Bus Operations and Maintenance Facility fit 12 acres’ worth of programming in a multi-level structure on a 4.8-acre site.
Building Team Awards | May 23, 2016
'Greenest ballpark' proves a winner for St. Paul Saints
Solar arrays, a public art courtyard, and a picnic-friendly “park within a park" make the 7,210-seat CHS Field the first ballpark to meet Minnesota sustainable building standards.
Building Team Awards | May 19, 2016
Chinatown library unites and serves two emerging Chicago neighborhoods
The 16,000-sf, pebble-shaped Chinatown Branch Library was built at the intersection of new and old Chinatown neighborhoods. The goal is for the building to unite the communities and serve as a catalyst for the developing area.
Building Team Awards | May 19, 2016
NYC subway station lights the way for 300,000 riders a day
Fulton Center, which handles 85% of the riders coming to Lower Manhattan, is like no other station in the city’s vast underground transit web—and that’s a good thing.
Retail Centers | May 10, 2016
5 factors guiding restaurant design
Restaurants are more than just places to eat. They are comprising town centers and playing into the future of brick-and-mortar retail.