According to the 2023 year-end U.S. Construction Pipeline Trend Report from Lodging Econometrics (LE), the pipeline stands at 5,964 projects/693,963 rooms. The pipeline hit record project counts at Q4, with the addition of 260 hotel construction projects and 21,287 rooms over last quarter, and a 9% increase by projects and a 7% increase by rooms year-over-year (YOY). The previous project count high was Q2 2008 with 5,883 projects.
At the close of 2023’s fourth quarter, there are 1,118 projects/141,768 rooms under construction, up 11% by projects and 5% by rooms YOY. Hotel projects scheduled to start within the next 12 months stand at 2,259 projects/261,582 rooms, up 9% by projects and 11% by rooms YOY. Projects and rooms in the early planning stage hit all-time highs at Q4, standing at 2,587 projects/290,613 rooms, and up 9% by projects and 4% by rooms YOY.
RELATED CONTENT:
Notably, the number of combined hotel renovations and brand conversion projects in the U.S. continued its upward growth trend through the end of 2023, closing the year with record project and room counts of 2,028 projects/303,330 rooms.
The upper midscale segment has the highest project count of all chain scales in the total U.S. hotel construction pipeline at the Q4 close, reaching an all-time high of 2,245 projects/218,112 rooms. The second largest is the upscale category, which has 1,445 projects/177,999 rooms. Together, these two chain scales comprise 62% of all projects in the country’s total pipeline at the Q4 close.
Rate cuts point to positive but cautious outlook for hotel construction
The recent Federal Reserve signaling of three 25-basis-point interest rate cuts in 2024 and additional cuts in 2025 sends a positive but cautious outlook for U.S. hotel development in the year ahead. With the anticipation of multiple rate cuts in 2024, hotel development seems poised for constructive growth well beyond 2024. The primary reason lies in less expensive borrowing costs, providing long-awaited relief on interest rates. This is expected to have a favorable impact not only on new construction but acquisitions, renovations, and conversions as well.
Despite the positive outlook, lenders continue to be vigilant, and many investors continue with a “wait and see” attitude; holding out hope for potentially deeper rate cuts. We expect this cautious, yet optimistic approach will continue through 2024, however, we expect to see investors re-engaging, which, as we can tell by the pipeline numbers and record-high project counts, has already begun. We expect lending volume to increase slowly in the first half of 2024 and then gradually pick up the pace in the second half of the year.
In 2023, the U.S. had 474 new hotels/60,436 rooms open, a 1.1% growth rate in new supply, bringing the total U.S. census to 59,636 hotels/5,655,356 rooms. In 2024, LE analysts expect the existing supply of hotels in the U.S. to increase 1.4% with the opening of 677 new hotels and 79,518 rooms. The LE forecast for new hotel openings shows this growth trajectory will continue through 2025, with another 799 new hotels/85,654 rooms forecast to open by year-end 2025 and further growth anticipated for 2026 and beyond.
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Dec 3, 2021
2021 Hotel Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. hospitality sector
Gensler, Jacobs, Suffolk Construction, and WATG top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest hotel sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2021 Giants 400 Report.
Hotel Facilities | Nov 3, 2021
California’s Hotel del Coronado is finishing up the final piece to its Master Plan
A 75-residence Shore House will be family oriented and meeting commodious.
Hotel Facilities | Oct 28, 2021
At the end of Q3 2021, Dallas tops the U.S. hotel construction pipeline
The top 25 U.S. markets account for 33% of all pipeline projects and 37% of all rooms in the U.S. hotel construction pipeline.
Hotel Facilities | Oct 13, 2021
World’s first net zero carbon hotel launches in West London
The hotel is located in Chiswick, West London.
Hotel Facilities | Oct 12, 2021
510-room Hyatt Place Hotel completes in Chelsea
The project broke ground in January 2019.
Hotel Facilities | Sep 27, 2021
New resort will be carved directly into a mountainside
The project is is located in western Saudi Arabia.
Hotel Facilities | Sep 22, 2021
Will hotel developers finally embrace modular construction?
Last May, MiTek, a construction software and building services company that’s part of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate, formed a partnership with Danny Forster & Architecture to promote modular design and construction.
Giants 400 | Aug 30, 2021
2021 Giants 400 Report: Ranking the largest architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S.
The 2021 Giants 400 Report includes more than 130 rankings across 25 building sectors and specialty categories.
Hotel Facilities | Aug 26, 2021
Building hotels with modules, with citizenM's Menno Hilberts
In this exclusive interview for HorizonTV, Menno Hilberts, Managing Director of Project Management with hotelier citizenM, explains how the company is employing modular construction to help double its presence in the U.S.
Resiliency | Aug 19, 2021
White paper outlines cost-effective flood protection approaches for building owners
A new white paper from Walter P Moore offers an in-depth review of the flood protection process and proven approaches.