The U.S. economy contracted at a 1.4% annualized rate during the first quarter of 2022. Investment in nonresidential structures declined at an annual rate of 0.9% during the quarter and has contracted nine of the past 10 quarters, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
“The economy’s woeful performance during 2022’s first quarter complicates matters,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “Conventional wisdom says the economy has enough momentum to contend with the tighter monetary policy the Federal Reserve is pursuing to countervail inflation. Today’s data indicate that the economy is weaker than thought, which means the Federal Reserve will have a very difficult time curbing inflation without driving the economy into recession in late 2022 or 2023.
“That said, the economy should manage to generate some positive momentum during the next two to three quarters,” said Basu. “Consumer demand for goods and services remains strong. The omicron variant affected the economy during the first quarter and that does not appear to be the case during the second. Global supply chains have been adjusting to the dislocations caused by the Russian-Ukraine war. Many state and local governments are flush with cash and continue to plan for a period of elevated infrastructure outlays.
“There is one other bit of good news,” said Basu. “The weakness exhibited by the economy during the first quarter may persuade monetary policymakers to raise interest rates less aggressively. This is a matter of significance for nonresidential contractors, who have become less confident in recent months, according to ABC’s Construction Confidence Indicator. Investment in structures continues to decline in America, in part due to weakness in office, lodging and shopping mall segments. Presumably, additional rapid increases in borrowing costs would further dampen new construction in these categories. It may be that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more gradually than they would have knowing that the U.S. economy is already rather fragile.”
Related Stories
Office Buildings | Apr 1, 2015
IBM's supercomputer Watson finds new home in Manhattan's Silicon Alley
The new headquarters for the former Jeopardy champ was conceived as a showcase for Watson’s capabilities, and as an inspirational workspace for Millennials and idea generators of all ages.
Sponsored | Fire and Life Safety | Apr 1, 2015
Radiant Heat: The Invisible Killer
Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. Where there’s fire, there’s the deadly threat of radiant heat.
Modular Building | Mar 31, 2015
Phoenix apartment complex will be made from recycled shipping containers
The eight-unit complex, called Containers on Grand, was inspired by the need for affordable and sustainable housing near the city's core.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 27, 2015
Bathroom fixtures get a starchitect makeover by Bjarke Ingels
This Danish starchitect elevates the toilet paper holder (and other bathroom accessories).
Architects | Mar 27, 2015
Illustrator Federico Babina explores architecture as animals
When you pay attention, the Eiffel Tower really does look like a giraffe.
Transit Facilities | Mar 25, 2015
Kengo Kuma selected to design new Paris Metro station
The new station will serve as a hub to connect Paris' northern suburbs with the core.
Government Buildings | Mar 23, 2015
SOM leads planning for Egypt’s new $45 billion capital city
To alleviate overcrowding and congestion in Cairo, the Egyptian government is building a new capital from scratch.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Mar 19, 2015
Populous design wins competition for UK's most sustainable arena
The live-concert venue will seat an audience of 12,000, which the firm says will be masked by “the atmosphere and intimacy of a 4,000-seat amphitheatre.”
Multifamily Housing | Mar 18, 2015
Prefabricated skycubes proposed with 'elastic' living apartments inside
The interiors for each unit are designed using an elastic living concept, where different spaces are created by sliding on tracks.
Sponsored | | Mar 17, 2015
Are face-to-face meetings still important?
One CEO looks pass convenience and advocates for old school, in-person meetings.
