The University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate’s annual analysis of industrial and office real estate in Los Angeles County, Orange County and the Inland Empire shows signs of a slow market recovery.
The 10th Annual Casden Southern California Industrial and Office Forecast reveals that all three areas experienced job growth and increased demand for both property types in 2011. An analysis of each area’s submarkets found lower vacancy rates in 11 of 17 office submarkets and 11 of 14 industrial submarkets. On the rent side, four office submarkets and eight industrial submarkets experienced increases. Overall, declines were smaller than in the previous two years.
“Although Southern California is a long way from pre-crisis levels of economic health, the improved employment picture and profound turnaround in the industrial market are signs of a slow recovery,” said study author Tracey Seslen. “The office market is only slightly improved over last year and vacancy rates may continue to fall for many months before we see rents stabilize.”
As a result, while office demand is expected to grow over the next two years, office rents were down for the third straight year and will continue to decline. On the industrial side, all three markets are expected to see ongoing declines in vacancies and increases in rents over the next two years.
In particular, the Inland Empire’s industrial market – the top performer in 2011 with a 6.4% increase in rents and nearly 17 million square feet of net absorption – is expected to see more growth in the next two years, but the magnitude will depend on rail and port activity.
“Sovereign risk in Europe, geopolitical turmoil and the growing U.S. debt crisis are undermining consumer confidence. Port and rail traffic, particularly activity at the Port of Long Beach, is down and could hinder the positive outlook for industrial rents,” Seslen said. BD+C
Related Stories
| Feb 22, 2011
HDR Architecture names four healthcare directors
Four senior professionals in HDR Architecture’s healthcare program have been named Healthcare directors.
| Feb 15, 2011
Iconic TWA terminal may reopen as a boutique hotel
The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey hopes to squeeze a hotel with about 150 rooms in the space between the old TWA terminal and the new JetBlue building. The old TWA terminal would serve as an entry to the hotel and hotel lobby, which would also contain restaurants and shops.
| Feb 15, 2011
New Orleans' rebuilt public housing architecture gets mixed reviews
The architecture of New Orleans’ new public housing is awash with optimism about how urban-design will improve residents' lives—but the changes are based on the idealism of an earlier era that’s being erased and revised.
| Feb 15, 2011
LAUSD commissions innovative prefab prototypes for future building
The LA Unified School District, under the leadership of a new facilities director, reversed course regarding prototypes for its new schools and engaged architects to create compelling kit-of-parts schemes that are largely prefabricated.
| Feb 15, 2011
New 2030 Challenge to include carbon footprint of building materials and products
Architecture 2030 has just broadened the scope of its 2030 Challenge, issuing an additional challenge regarding the climate impact of building products. The 2030 Challenge for Products aims to reduce the embodied carbon (meaning the carbon emissions equivalent) of building products 50% by 2030.
| Feb 15, 2011
New Urbanist Andrés Duany: We need a LEED Brown rating
Andrés Duany advocates a "LEED Brown" rating that would give contractors credit for using traditional but low cost measures that are not easy to quantify or certify. He described these steps as "the original green," and "what we did when we didn't have money." Ostensibly, LEED Brown would be in addition to the current Silver, Gold and Platinum ratings.
| Feb 15, 2011
AIA on President Obama's proposed $1 billion investment in energy conservation
The President’s budget increases the value of investment in energy conservation in commercial buildings by roughly $1 billion, reports AIA 2011 President Clark Manus, FAIA. The significant increase from the current tax deduction of $1.80 per sq. ft. now on the books is an increase for which the AIA has been advocating in order to encourage energy conservation.
