The University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate’s annual analysis of industrial and office real estate in Los Angeles County, Orange County and the Inland Empire shows signs of a slow market recovery.
The 10th Annual Casden Southern California Industrial and Office Forecast reveals that all three areas experienced job growth and increased demand for both property types in 2011. An analysis of each area’s submarkets found lower vacancy rates in 11 of 17 office submarkets and 11 of 14 industrial submarkets. On the rent side, four office submarkets and eight industrial submarkets experienced increases. Overall, declines were smaller than in the previous two years.
“Although Southern California is a long way from pre-crisis levels of economic health, the improved employment picture and profound turnaround in the industrial market are signs of a slow recovery,” said study author Tracey Seslen. “The office market is only slightly improved over last year and vacancy rates may continue to fall for many months before we see rents stabilize.”
As a result, while office demand is expected to grow over the next two years, office rents were down for the third straight year and will continue to decline. On the industrial side, all three markets are expected to see ongoing declines in vacancies and increases in rents over the next two years.
In particular, the Inland Empire’s industrial market – the top performer in 2011 with a 6.4% increase in rents and nearly 17 million square feet of net absorption – is expected to see more growth in the next two years, but the magnitude will depend on rail and port activity.
“Sovereign risk in Europe, geopolitical turmoil and the growing U.S. debt crisis are undermining consumer confidence. Port and rail traffic, particularly activity at the Port of Long Beach, is down and could hinder the positive outlook for industrial rents,” Seslen said. BD+C
Related Stories
| Mar 16, 2012
Stego embarks on HPD Pilot Program
Vapor barrier manufacturer strives to provide better green choices to designers and builders.
| Mar 16, 2012
Marvin Windows and Doors accepting entries for fourth-annual myMarvin Architect’s Challenge
Architects in U.S. and abroad offered the chance to showcase their very best work.
| Mar 14, 2012
Hearing to decide fate of unfinished Harmon in Las Vegas under way
The testimony began with CityCenter consulting engineer Chukwuma Ekwueme methodically showing photo after photo of parts of the Harmon, where he and his team had chipped away the concrete pillars and beams to examine the steel reinforcing bars inside.
| Mar 14, 2012
Firestone names 2012 Master Contractor Award Winners
Annual award acknowledges industry’s top roofing professionals.
| Mar 14, 2012
Plans for San Francisco's tallest building revamped
The glassy white high-rise would be 60 stories and 1,070 feet tall with an entrance at First and Mission streets.
| Mar 14, 2012
Hyatt joins Thornton Tomasetti as VP in Chicago
A forensic specialist, Hyatt has more than 10 years of experience performing investigations of structural failures throughout the U.S.
| Mar 14, 2012
Tsoi/Kobus and Centerbrook to design Jackson Laboratory facility in Farmington, Conn.
Building will house research into personalized, gene-based cancer screening and treatment.
| Mar 13, 2012
China's high-speed building boom
A 30-story hotel in Changsha went up in two weeks. Some question the safety in that, but the builder defends its methods.
| Mar 13, 2012
Commercial glazer Harmon expanding into Texas
Company expanding into the Texas market with a new office in Dallas and a satellite facility in Austin.
| Mar 13, 2012
Worker office space to drop below 100-sf in five years
The average for all companies for square feet per worker in 2017 will be 151 sf, compared to 176 sf, and 225 sf in 2010.