The University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate’s annual analysis of industrial and office real estate in Los Angeles County, Orange County and the Inland Empire shows signs of a slow market recovery.
The 10th Annual Casden Southern California Industrial and Office Forecast reveals that all three areas experienced job growth and increased demand for both property types in 2011. An analysis of each area’s submarkets found lower vacancy rates in 11 of 17 office submarkets and 11 of 14 industrial submarkets. On the rent side, four office submarkets and eight industrial submarkets experienced increases. Overall, declines were smaller than in the previous two years.
“Although Southern California is a long way from pre-crisis levels of economic health, the improved employment picture and profound turnaround in the industrial market are signs of a slow recovery,” said study author Tracey Seslen. “The office market is only slightly improved over last year and vacancy rates may continue to fall for many months before we see rents stabilize.”
As a result, while office demand is expected to grow over the next two years, office rents were down for the third straight year and will continue to decline. On the industrial side, all three markets are expected to see ongoing declines in vacancies and increases in rents over the next two years.
In particular, the Inland Empire’s industrial market – the top performer in 2011 with a 6.4% increase in rents and nearly 17 million square feet of net absorption – is expected to see more growth in the next two years, but the magnitude will depend on rail and port activity.
“Sovereign risk in Europe, geopolitical turmoil and the growing U.S. debt crisis are undermining consumer confidence. Port and rail traffic, particularly activity at the Port of Long Beach, is down and could hinder the positive outlook for industrial rents,” Seslen said. BD+C
Related Stories
| May 11, 2012
CRSI appoints Brace chairman
Stevens also elected to board of directors and vice-chair.
| May 11, 2012
Dempster named to AIA College of Fellows
Altoon Partners’ technical and construction services leader honored for his contributions.
| May 11, 2012
AIA launches education and training portal
New portal to host Contract Documents training, education resources in one convenient place.
| May 10, 2012
Chapter 7 When Modern Becomes Historic: Preserving the Modernist Building Envelope
This AIA CES Discovery course explores the special reconstruction questions posed by Modern-era buildings.
| May 10, 2012
Chapter 6 Energy Codes + Reconstructed Buildings: 2012 and Beyond
Our experts analyze the next generation of energy and green building codes and how they impact reconstruction.
| May 10, 2012
Chapter 5 LEED-EB and Green Globes CIEB: Rating Sustainable Reconstruction
Certification for existing buildings under these two rating programs has overtaken that for new construction.
| May 10, 2012
Chapter 4 Business Case for High-Performance Reconstructed Buildings
Five reconstruction projects in one city make a bottom-line case for reconstruction across the country.
| May 10, 2012
Chapter 3 How Building Technologies Contribute to Reconstruction Advances
Building Teams are employing a wide variety of components and systems in their reconstruction projects.
| May 10, 2012
Chapter 2 Exemplary High-Performance Reconstruction Projects
Several case studies show how to successfully renovate existing structures into high-performance buildings.
| May 9, 2012
Chapter 1 Reconstruction: ‘The 99% Solution’ for Energy Savings in Buildings
As a share of total construction activity reconstruction has been on the rise in the U.S. and Canada in the last few years, which creates a golden opportunity for extensive energy savings.
