The University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate’s annual analysis of industrial and office real estate in Los Angeles County, Orange County and the Inland Empire shows signs of a slow market recovery.
The 10th Annual Casden Southern California Industrial and Office Forecast reveals that all three areas experienced job growth and increased demand for both property types in 2011. An analysis of each area’s submarkets found lower vacancy rates in 11 of 17 office submarkets and 11 of 14 industrial submarkets. On the rent side, four office submarkets and eight industrial submarkets experienced increases. Overall, declines were smaller than in the previous two years.
“Although Southern California is a long way from pre-crisis levels of economic health, the improved employment picture and profound turnaround in the industrial market are signs of a slow recovery,” said study author Tracey Seslen. “The office market is only slightly improved over last year and vacancy rates may continue to fall for many months before we see rents stabilize.”
As a result, while office demand is expected to grow over the next two years, office rents were down for the third straight year and will continue to decline. On the industrial side, all three markets are expected to see ongoing declines in vacancies and increases in rents over the next two years.
In particular, the Inland Empire’s industrial market – the top performer in 2011 with a 6.4% increase in rents and nearly 17 million square feet of net absorption – is expected to see more growth in the next two years, but the magnitude will depend on rail and port activity.
“Sovereign risk in Europe, geopolitical turmoil and the growing U.S. debt crisis are undermining consumer confidence. Port and rail traffic, particularly activity at the Port of Long Beach, is down and could hinder the positive outlook for industrial rents,” Seslen said. BD+C
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Dec 12, 2023
Top 35 Veterans Affairs Facility Architecture Firms for 2023
LEO A DALY, Page Southerland Page, Guidon, and HDR top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest Veterans Affairs facility architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Dec 12, 2023
Top 40 Military Facility Architecture Firms for 2023
Michael Baker International, HDR, Whitman, Requardt & Associates, and Stantec top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest military facility architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Office Buildings | Dec 12, 2023
Transforming workplaces for employee mental health
Lauren Elliott, Director of Interior Design, Design Collaborative, shares practical tips and strategies for workplace renovation that prioritizes employee mental health.
Giants 400 | Dec 11, 2023
Top 150 Local Government Building Architecture Firms for 2023
Gensler, HOK, Stantec, and Skidmore, Owings & Merrill top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest local government building architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Dec 11, 2023
Top 90 State Government Building Architecture Firms for 2023
Page Southerland Page, Skidmore, Owings & Merrill, Stantec, and NORR top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest state government building architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Codes and Standards | Dec 11, 2023
Washington state tries new approach to phase out fossil fuels in new construction
After pausing a heat pump mandate earlier this year after a federal court overturned Berkeley, Calif.’s ban on gas appliances in new buildings, Washington state enacted a new code provision that seems poised to achieve the same goal.
Green | Dec 11, 2023
U.S. has tools to meet commercial building sector decarbonization goals early
The U.S. has the tools to reduce commercial building-related emissions to reach target goals in 2029, earlier than what it committed to when it signed the Paris Agreement, according to a report by the U.S. Green Building Council.
MFPRO+ News | Dec 11, 2023
U.S. poorly prepared to house growing number of older adults
The U.S. is ill-prepared to provide adequate housing for the growing ranks of older people, according to a report from Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. Over the next decade, the U.S. population older than 75 will increase by 45%, growing from 17 million to nearly 25 million, with many expected to struggle financially.
Office Buildings | Dec 11, 2023
Believe it or not, there could be a shortage of office space in the years ahead
With work-from-home firmly established, many real estate analysts predict a dramatic reduction in office space leasing and plummeting property values. But the high-end of the office segment might actually be headed for a shortage, according to real estate intelligence company CoStar Group.
University Buildings | Dec 8, 2023
Yale University breaks ground on nation's largest Living Building student housing complex
A groundbreaking on Oct. 11 kicked off a project aiming to construct the largest Living Building Challenge-certified residence on a university campus. The Living Village, a 45,000 sf home for Yale University Divinity School graduate students, “will make an ecological statement about the need to build in harmony with the natural world while training students to become ‘apostles of the environment’,” according to Bruner/Cott, which is leading the design team that includes Höweler + Yoon Architecture and Andropogon Associates.
