The University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate’s annual analysis of industrial and office real estate in Los Angeles County, Orange County and the Inland Empire shows signs of a slow market recovery.
The 10th Annual Casden Southern California Industrial and Office Forecast reveals that all three areas experienced job growth and increased demand for both property types in 2011. An analysis of each area’s submarkets found lower vacancy rates in 11 of 17 office submarkets and 11 of 14 industrial submarkets. On the rent side, four office submarkets and eight industrial submarkets experienced increases. Overall, declines were smaller than in the previous two years.
“Although Southern California is a long way from pre-crisis levels of economic health, the improved employment picture and profound turnaround in the industrial market are signs of a slow recovery,” said study author Tracey Seslen. “The office market is only slightly improved over last year and vacancy rates may continue to fall for many months before we see rents stabilize.”
As a result, while office demand is expected to grow over the next two years, office rents were down for the third straight year and will continue to decline. On the industrial side, all three markets are expected to see ongoing declines in vacancies and increases in rents over the next two years.
In particular, the Inland Empire’s industrial market – the top performer in 2011 with a 6.4% increase in rents and nearly 17 million square feet of net absorption – is expected to see more growth in the next two years, but the magnitude will depend on rail and port activity.
“Sovereign risk in Europe, geopolitical turmoil and the growing U.S. debt crisis are undermining consumer confidence. Port and rail traffic, particularly activity at the Port of Long Beach, is down and could hinder the positive outlook for industrial rents,” Seslen said. BD+C
Related Stories
| Sep 4, 2014
Strong industry growth could be slowed by skilled labor shortage, says Gilbane report
While construction spending for 2014 will finish the year 5.5% higher than 2013 and the unemployment rate in construction is down to 7.5%, the industry has been losing workers for more than five years, according to a new Gilbane report.
| Sep 3, 2014
Ranked: Top local government sector AEC firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
STV, HOK, and Turner top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest local government design and construction firms, as reported in the 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 3, 2014
WSP to acquire Parsons Brinckerhoff in $1.35 billion deal
The deal, which has been approved by the boards of WSP and Balfour Beatty, has an enterprise value of $1.243 billion, plus another $110 million in cash retained by PB.
| Sep 3, 2014
The coming architect/engineer brain drain, or 'Curse of the Baby Boomers'
Architecture, engineering, and (presumably) construction firms will face difficulties with management succession, as tens of thousands of Baby Boomers leave the AEC industry. Who will fill the knowledge gap?
| Sep 3, 2014
New designation launched to streamline LEED review process
The LEED Proven Provider designation is designed to minimize the need for additional work during the project review process.
| Sep 2, 2014
Ranked: Top green building sector AEC firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
AECOM, Gensler, and Turner top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest green design and construction firms.
Sponsored | | Sep 2, 2014
A smarter way to manage projects
Understanding effective project management helps many big and small organizations to carry out large-scale projects on time, on budget and with lesser commotion.
| Sep 2, 2014
Extreme conversion: 17-story industrial silo to be converted to high-rise housing
As part of Copenhagen's effort to turn an industrial seaport into a bustling neighborhood, Danish architecture firm COBE was invited to convert a grain silo into a residential tower.
Sponsored | | Sep 2, 2014
Judson University’s Harm A. Weber Academic Center resembles copper, but its sustainability efforts are pure gold
The building’s custom-fabricated wall panels look like copper, but are actually flat metal sheets coated with Valspar’s signature Fluropon Copper Penny coating.
| Sep 2, 2014
Melbourne's tallest residential tower will have 'optically transformative façade'
Plans for Melbourne's tallest residential tower have been released by Elenberg Fraser Architects. Using an optically transformative façade and botanical aesthetic, the project seeks to change the landscape of Australia's Victoria state.
