The University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate’s annual analysis of industrial and office real estate in Los Angeles County, Orange County and the Inland Empire shows signs of a slow market recovery.
The 10th Annual Casden Southern California Industrial and Office Forecast reveals that all three areas experienced job growth and increased demand for both property types in 2011. An analysis of each area’s submarkets found lower vacancy rates in 11 of 17 office submarkets and 11 of 14 industrial submarkets. On the rent side, four office submarkets and eight industrial submarkets experienced increases. Overall, declines were smaller than in the previous two years.
“Although Southern California is a long way from pre-crisis levels of economic health, the improved employment picture and profound turnaround in the industrial market are signs of a slow recovery,” said study author Tracey Seslen. “The office market is only slightly improved over last year and vacancy rates may continue to fall for many months before we see rents stabilize.”
As a result, while office demand is expected to grow over the next two years, office rents were down for the third straight year and will continue to decline. On the industrial side, all three markets are expected to see ongoing declines in vacancies and increases in rents over the next two years.
In particular, the Inland Empire’s industrial market – the top performer in 2011 with a 6.4% increase in rents and nearly 17 million square feet of net absorption – is expected to see more growth in the next two years, but the magnitude will depend on rail and port activity.
“Sovereign risk in Europe, geopolitical turmoil and the growing U.S. debt crisis are undermining consumer confidence. Port and rail traffic, particularly activity at the Port of Long Beach, is down and could hinder the positive outlook for industrial rents,” Seslen said. BD+C
Related Stories
Architects | Mar 30, 2015
Q+A with Arthur Gensler, and advice from his new book
"Designers need to be trained to solve their clients’ problems through design while leading their own firms to become sustainable practices," says Gensler.
Structural Materials | Mar 30, 2015
12 projects earn structural steel industry's top building award
Calatrava's soaring Innovation Science and Technology Building at Florida Polytechnic University is among the 12 projects honored by the American Institute of Steel Construction in the 2015 IDEAS² awards competition.
Cultural Facilities | Mar 30, 2015
Designs released for new entertainment center in Lubbock, Texas
Amenities of the facility include a performance venue that seats 2,220, a smaller one that seats 425, a 6,000-sf multipurpose room, and a bistro café.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 27, 2015
Bathroom fixtures get a starchitect makeover by Bjarke Ingels
This Danish starchitect elevates the toilet paper holder (and other bathroom accessories).
Architects | Mar 27, 2015
Illustrator Federico Babina explores architecture as animals
When you pay attention, the Eiffel Tower really does look like a giraffe.
Transit Facilities | Mar 25, 2015
Kengo Kuma selected to design new Paris Metro station
The new station will serve as a hub to connect Paris' northern suburbs with the core.
Green | Mar 25, 2015
WELL Building Standard introduced in China
The WELL Building Standard is a performance-based system for measuring, certifying and monitoring features that impact human health and wellbeing, through air, water, nourishment, light, fitness, comfort, and mind.
High-rise Construction | Mar 24, 2015
Timber high-rise residential complex will tower over Stockholm waterfront
The four towers, 20 stories each, will be made entirely out of Swedish pine, from frame to façade.
Higher Education | Mar 23, 2015
Hong Kong university building will feature bioclimatic façade
The project's twin-tower design opens the campus up to the neighboring public green space, while maximizing the use of summer winds for natural ventilation.
Religious Facilities | Mar 23, 2015
Is nothing sacred? Seattle church to become a restaurant and ballroom
A Seattle-based real estate developer plans to convert a historic downtown building, which for more than a century has served as a church sanctuary, into a restaurant with ballroom space.
