The University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate’s annual analysis of industrial and office real estate in Los Angeles County, Orange County and the Inland Empire shows signs of a slow market recovery.
The 10th Annual Casden Southern California Industrial and Office Forecast reveals that all three areas experienced job growth and increased demand for both property types in 2011. An analysis of each area’s submarkets found lower vacancy rates in 11 of 17 office submarkets and 11 of 14 industrial submarkets. On the rent side, four office submarkets and eight industrial submarkets experienced increases. Overall, declines were smaller than in the previous two years.
“Although Southern California is a long way from pre-crisis levels of economic health, the improved employment picture and profound turnaround in the industrial market are signs of a slow recovery,” said study author Tracey Seslen. “The office market is only slightly improved over last year and vacancy rates may continue to fall for many months before we see rents stabilize.”
As a result, while office demand is expected to grow over the next two years, office rents were down for the third straight year and will continue to decline. On the industrial side, all three markets are expected to see ongoing declines in vacancies and increases in rents over the next two years.
In particular, the Inland Empire’s industrial market – the top performer in 2011 with a 6.4% increase in rents and nearly 17 million square feet of net absorption – is expected to see more growth in the next two years, but the magnitude will depend on rail and port activity.
“Sovereign risk in Europe, geopolitical turmoil and the growing U.S. debt crisis are undermining consumer confidence. Port and rail traffic, particularly activity at the Port of Long Beach, is down and could hinder the positive outlook for industrial rents,” Seslen said. BD+C
Related Stories
Building Team | Jul 11, 2016
Design-assist: The way to really fly [AIA course]
Experts explain the benefits of DA, a process where the subcontractors are retained to assist other Building Team members in the development of a design. Earn 1.0 AIA CES learning units by reading and taking the exam.
Building Team | Jul 11, 2016
Addressing client concerns about design-assist
Common concerns about DA include lack of familiarity, obtaining competitive pricing, and design liability.
Sponsored | Building Team | Jul 11, 2016
Construction Disruption at AECX: Technology, hackathons and the promise of change in LA
The lead up to AECX featured a discussion providing insight into the current state of the AEC technological revolution by exploring opportunities, challenges and choices AEC pros face.
Green | Jul 1, 2016
Perkins Eastman pledges to use EDGE green building system for five upcoming international projects
The firm will partner with the International Finance Corporation to promote sustainable building in emerging markets like India and China.
Healthcare Facilities | Jul 1, 2016
AIA releases summary of the 2016 Design and Health Research Consortium
Consortium members discussed how architects, designers, and health professionals can best apply design and health research in their communities.
Architects | Jun 30, 2016
The year's best small projects include a floating sauna, dental trailer, and smocked porch
AIA chose the 2016 recipients of the Small Project Awards. Every entry cost less than $1.5 million to build, with one as low as $900.
Architects | Jun 29, 2016
AIA: Healthy demand for all building types signaled in Architecture Billings Index
Recent client interest could signal resurgence for institutional market. May's ABI score was the highest mark in nearly a year.
Architects | Jun 28, 2016
5 easy ways architects can increase their profits
Whitehorn Financial Managing Principal Steve Whitehorn offers effective ways to recoup lost revenue, including a few strategies that capitalize on recent changes to the federal tax code.
AEC Tech | Jun 27, 2016
If ‘only the paranoid survive,’ what does it take to thrive?
“Sooner or later, something fundamental in your business world will change.” The late Andrew Grove (1936-2016), Co-founder of tech giant Intel Corp., lived by these words.
Architects | Jun 15, 2016
Design Thinking makes its way into Yale School of Management
The school will introduce Design Observer co-founders Jessica Helfand and Michael Bierut as faculty.