The University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate’s annual analysis of industrial and office real estate in Los Angeles County, Orange County and the Inland Empire shows signs of a slow market recovery.
The 10th Annual Casden Southern California Industrial and Office Forecast reveals that all three areas experienced job growth and increased demand for both property types in 2011. An analysis of each area’s submarkets found lower vacancy rates in 11 of 17 office submarkets and 11 of 14 industrial submarkets. On the rent side, four office submarkets and eight industrial submarkets experienced increases. Overall, declines were smaller than in the previous two years.
“Although Southern California is a long way from pre-crisis levels of economic health, the improved employment picture and profound turnaround in the industrial market are signs of a slow recovery,” said study author Tracey Seslen. “The office market is only slightly improved over last year and vacancy rates may continue to fall for many months before we see rents stabilize.”
As a result, while office demand is expected to grow over the next two years, office rents were down for the third straight year and will continue to decline. On the industrial side, all three markets are expected to see ongoing declines in vacancies and increases in rents over the next two years.
In particular, the Inland Empire’s industrial market – the top performer in 2011 with a 6.4% increase in rents and nearly 17 million square feet of net absorption – is expected to see more growth in the next two years, but the magnitude will depend on rail and port activity.
“Sovereign risk in Europe, geopolitical turmoil and the growing U.S. debt crisis are undermining consumer confidence. Port and rail traffic, particularly activity at the Port of Long Beach, is down and could hinder the positive outlook for industrial rents,” Seslen said. BD+C
Related Stories
| Jun 13, 2017
Accelerate Live! talk: Incubating innovation through R&D and product development, Jonatan Schumacher, Thornton Tomasetti
Thornton Tomasetti’s Jonatan Schumacher presents the firm’s business model for developing, incubating, and delivering cutting-edge tools and solutions for the firm, and the greater AEC market.
| Jun 13, 2017
Accelerate Live! talk: The future of computational design, Ben Juckes, Yazdani Studio of CannonDesign
Yazdani’s Ben Juckes discusses the firm’s tech-centric culture, where scripting has become an every-project occurrence and each designer regularly works with computational tools as part of their basic toolset.
Industry Research | Jun 13, 2017
Gender, racial, and ethnic diversity increases among emerging professionals
For the first time since NCARB began collecting demographics data, gender equity improved along every career stage.
Architects | Jun 7, 2017
Build your very own version of Frank Lloyd Wright’s Guggenheim Museum with this new LEGO set
744 LEGO bricks are used to recreate the famous Wright design, including the 1992 addition.
Multifamily Housing | Jun 7, 2017
Multifamily visionary: The life and work of architect David Baker
For 35 years, architect David Baker has been a spirited voice for affordable housing, in San Francisco and beyond.
Architects | Jun 5, 2017
NCARB launches second alternative path to architect certification
Architects without a professional degree in architecture can now earn NCARB certification through an alternate path.
Architects | Jun 2, 2017
NELSON joins forces with Cope Linder and KA
More growth ahead, as NELSON expects to double its workforce and revenue this year.
Office Buildings | Jun 2, 2017
Strong brew: Heineken HQ spurs innovation through interaction [slideshow]
The open plan concept features a Heineken bar and multiple social zones.
| Jun 2, 2017
Accelerate Live! talk: How maker culture is transforming Sasaki’s design practice
Sasaki’s Pablo Savid-Buteler and Brad Prestbo talk about how the firm’s maker initiatives are changing the way Sasaki goes to market, and how they are helping the firm win new business.
| May 30, 2017
Accelerate Live! talk: The ROI of innovation culture, Russ Sykes, SmithGroupJJR
Russ Sykes discusses SmithGroupJJR’s ongoing journey to create a firm culture that ignites innovation and propels change across all levels of the organization.