Gilbane Building Company announced the Summer 2014 edition of its in-house economics report, Building for the Future — Construction Economics: Market Conditions in Construction. The report predicts rapid growth coupled with the lack of skilled, experienced labor and the ability to meet schedule will be some of the most important industry issues to address over the next few years.
“The good, if not, great news is that the most favorable, forward-looking conditions support expectations for strong industry growth in 2015,” said Ed Zarenski, a Gilbane estimating executive with more than 40 years in the construction business. “Very active markets will drive escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in six years.
“The challenge of anticipated workforce shortages will have a detrimental effect on labor cost, productivity, the ability to readily increase construction volume and the ability to complete projects on time," Zarenski added.
While construction spending for 2014 will finish the year 5.5% higher than 2013 and the unemployment rate in construction is down to 7.5%, the industry has been losing workers for more than five years, falling to low points in the third quarters of both 2012 and 2013.
Going forward, as the workload expands rapidly, the significant shortage of available skilled workers, as well as management-level personnel, will impact productivity and force extended work schedules. The report notes total construction spending will increase 7% for 2015, which is a good sign for future hiring, but highlights the need for workers to have the right training and skills.
Other report highlights include:
-
The workforce has never grown as fast as what will be needed to accommodate the rate of new construction growth predicted. Rapid workforce expansion leads to productivity losses.
-
Construction jobs are up 600,000, or 11% from the low point. However, new jobs plus added hours worked for the entire labor force shows total labor is up 18%. That means 40% of the total gains in labor in the past three years is due to added hours, not new jobs. That is the equivalent of nearly 400,000 jobs.
-
The average annual rate of new nonresidential construction starts for the most recent four months is $197 billion. The average for the same four months one year ago was $146 billion. It is expected to be higher in the next four months. This large increase in starts will result in a rapid increase in nonresidential buildings spending growth in the second half 2014 through 2015.
-
Residential construction will increase 12% in 2015, but non-building infrastructure will decrease 5%. Nonresidential buildings spending will grow 11%, led by commercial and office construction, both expected to be up 15% in 2015.
The report is available here.
Related Stories
| Oct 12, 2014
AIA 2030 commitment: Five years on, are we any closer to net-zero?
This year marks the fifth anniversary of the American Institute of Architects’ effort to have architecture firms voluntarily pledge net-zero energy design for all their buildings by 2030.
| Oct 10, 2014
A new memorial by Zaha Hadid in Cambodia departs from the expected
The project sees a departure from Hadid’s well-known use of concrete, fiberglass, and resin. Instead, the primary material will be timber, curved and symmetrical like the Angkor Wat and other Cambodian landmarks.
| Oct 9, 2014
Regulations, demand will accelerate revenue from zero energy buildings, according to study
A new study by Navigant Research projects that public- and private-sector efforts to lower the carbon footprint of new and renovated commercial and residential structures will boost the annual revenue generated by commercial and residential zero energy buildings over the next 20 years by 122.5%, to $1.4 trillion.
| Oct 9, 2014
More recession-postponed design projects are being resurrected, says AIA
About three quarters of the estimated 700 firms that serve as panelists on AIA’s Architectural Billings Index (ABI) had delayed or canceled major design projects in response to recessionary pressures. Nearly one-third of those firms now say they have since restarted stalled projects.
| Oct 9, 2014
Steven Holl's 'intersecting spheres' scheme for Taipei necropolis gets green light
The schematic design has been approved for the 50 000-sm Arrival Hall and Oceanic Pavilion for the Taiwan ChinPaoSan Necropolis.
| Oct 9, 2014
Beyond the bench: Meet the modern laboratory facility
Like office workers escaping from the perceived confines of cubicles, today’s scientists have been freed from the trappings of the typical lab bench, writes Perkins+Will's Bill Harris.
| Oct 8, 2014
New tools for community feedback and action
Too often, members of a community are put into a reactive position, asked for their input only when a major project is proposed. But examples of proactive civic engagement are beginning to emerge, write James Miner and Jessie Bauters.
| Oct 8, 2014
Massive ‘healthcare village’ in Nevada touted as world’s largest healthcare project
The $1.2 billion Union Village project is expected to create 12,000 permanent jobs when completed by 2024.
| Oct 8, 2014
First look: Woods Bagot unveils plans for new Christchurch Convention Center
The locally-inspired building is meant to serve as a symbol of the city's recovery from the earthquake of 2011.
| Oct 8, 2014
Denver transit project wins design-build Project of the Year honor
The Denver Union Station Transit Improvement Project is among 25 projects honored by the Design Build Institute of America for excellence in design-build project delivery.
