Could the multifamily market be headed towards a “period of stagflation?” That's the question Andrew Semmes, Senior Research Analyst, poses in the Matrix May 2024 Multifamily Rent Forecast update.
“While we still need to be humble about the overall economic trajectory and the path the Federal Reserve takes, we believe we are probably still on track for a rate reduction by the end of the year,” writes Semmes.
Multifamily Rent Forecast Update
As the April BLS jobs report came back lower than expected, some of the stagflation fears have been relieved. However, just like the overall split in the general economy, multifamily is a “tale of two cities.”
Markets that saw significant growth during the pandemic—and that are now experiencing a large influx of supply—are seeing stagnant or falling rents, according to Semmes. This is most apparent in Florida, Texas, and other “pandemic high-growth markets.”
RELATED
- Multifamily rent growth rate unchanged at 0.3%
- Yardi Matrix updates near-term multifamily supply forecast
- Average U.S multifamily rents drop $3 to $1,718 in October 2023: Yardi Matrix
On the other hand, quite a few secondary markets are still seeing strong growth in asking rents. These markets are primarily in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southern regions, and include metros like Des Moines, Cincinnati, Northern Virginia, and Providence.
Yardi Matrix Multifamily Outlook for 2024
Yardi Matrix's overall outlook on the market remains mostly the same. Markets facing significant supply issues will continue to struggle to make gains; issues should be alleviated once new units get absorbed.
It's expected that the Fed will keep rates higher for a bit longer, so Matrix anticipates a minor downturn/recession will occur “a little later and perhaps last a little longer.”
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Dec 20, 2023
Top 100 Apartment and Condominium Construction Firms for 2023
Clark Group, Suffolk Construction, Summit Contracting Group, and McShane Companies top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest apartment building and condominium general contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Dec 20, 2023
Top 70 Apartment and Condominium Engineering Firms for 2023
Kimley-Horn, WSP, Tetra Tech, and Thornton Tomasetti head BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest apartment building and condominium engineering and engineering/architecture (EA) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Dec 20, 2023
Top 160 Apartment and Condominium Architecture Firms for 2023
Gensler, Humphreys and Partners, Solomon Cordwell Buenz, and AO top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest apartment building and condominium architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Dec 20, 2023
Top 40 Student Housing Construction Firms for 2023
Findorff, Juneau Construction, JE Dunn Construction, and Weitz Company top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest student housing facility general contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Dec 20, 2023
Top 30 Student Housing Engineering Firms for 2023
Kimley-Horn, Wiss, Janney, Elstner Associates, KPFF Consulting Engineers, and Olsson head BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest student housing facility engineering and engineering/architecture (EA) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Dec 20, 2023
Top 90 Student Housing Architecture Firms for 2023
Niles Bolton Associates, Solomon Cordwell Buenz, BKV Group, and Humphreys and Partners Architects top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest student housing facility architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
MFPRO+ News | Dec 18, 2023
Berkeley, Calif., raises building height limits in downtown area
Facing a severe housing shortage, the City of Berkeley, Calif., increased the height limits on residential buildings to 12 stories in the area close to the University of California campus.
Condominiums | Dec 12, 2023
5 condominium trends for 2024
While the condo market faces challenges heading into 2024, it continues to adapt to changing buyer preferences and focus on offering luxury experiences.
Codes and Standards | Dec 11, 2023
Washington state tries new approach to phase out fossil fuels in new construction
After pausing a heat pump mandate earlier this year after a federal court overturned Berkeley, Calif.’s ban on gas appliances in new buildings, Washington state enacted a new code provision that seems poised to achieve the same goal.
MFPRO+ News | Dec 11, 2023
U.S. poorly prepared to house growing number of older adults
The U.S. is ill-prepared to provide adequate housing for the growing ranks of older people, according to a report from Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. Over the next decade, the U.S. population older than 75 will increase by 45%, growing from 17 million to nearly 25 million, with many expected to struggle financially.