Commonly used climate models may be significantly underestimating the risk of floods this century, according to a new study by Yale researchers.
Accurately pinpointing the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall hinges not only on tracking rainfall, but also on the way researchers model climate change, the study says. Previous studies averaged all the available climate models in order to figure out how much rain the planet will get in coming decades, but the Yale researchers only used the group of models that predict that climate change will result in an increase in precipitation efficiency—how much of a falling raindrop reevaporates into the atmosphere before it hits Earth’s surface.
They excluded models that forecast a decrease, since scientific observations over the past two decades indicate that climate change is yielding an increase in precipitation efficiency. The results show that it is possible that there will be as much as a twofold increase in the volume of extreme rainfall in the 21st century compared to what previous studies estimated.
Lawmakers could help prepare for extreme rainfall via fund initiatives that harden home infrastructure, such as rooftops, and improve drainage systems.
Related Stories
Architects | Jan 24, 2018
Strong finish for architecture billings in 2017
The Architecture Billings Index concluded the year in positive terrain, with the December reading capping off three straight months of growth in design billings.
Architects | Jan 10, 2018
7 steps to ending a low growth cycle
Here are the top 10 marketing techniques as rated by high-growth firms and how they compare to their no-growth counterparts.
Big Data | Jan 5, 2018
In the age of data-driven design, has POE’s time finally come?
At a time when research- and data-based methods are playing a larger role in architecture, there remains a surprisingly scant amount of post-occupancy research. But that’s starting to change.
Multifamily Housing | Jan 4, 2018
Shigeru Ban’s mass timber tower in Vancouver gets city approval
The 232-foot-tall Terrace House luxury condo development will be the tallest hybrid wood structure in North America.
Contractors | Jan 4, 2018
Construction spending in a ‘mature’ period of incremental growth
Labor shortages are spiking wages. Materials costs are rising, too.
Contractors | Jan 2, 2018
Construction jobs increase in 40 states between November 2016 and November 2017
"There were robust construction gains in most parts of the country as the economy continues to expand," said AGC’s Stephen Sandherr.
Green | Dec 22, 2017
Green builders can use ‘big data’ to make design decisions
More and more, green project teams are relying on publicly available “external datasets” to prioritize sustainable design decisions, says sustainability consultant Adele Houghton.
Reconstruction & Renovation | Dec 21, 2017
Interactive map includes detailed information on historic New York City buildings
The New York City Landmarks Preservation Commission launched a new, enhanced version of its interactive map, Discover NYC Landmarks.
High-rise Construction | Dec 20, 2017
Another record year for high-rise construction
More than 140 skyscrapers were completed across the globe this year, including 15 supertall towers.