The nonresidential building market was hamstrung by weather-related delays during the first part of the 2014, but conditions improved dramatically throughout the rest of the year to finish with greater than anticipated spending levels. The commercial construction sector is now looking at double-digit increases in 2015, led by vigorous levels of demand for hotels and office buildings.
The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 7.7% increase in 2015, with next year’s projection nudging up to 8.2%.
VIDEO: Q1 2015 Economic Forecast
“This is the first time since the Great Recession that every major building category is projected to see increases in spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But by far, the most significant driver that will fuel greater expansion in the marketplace is the revival in the institutional sector, especially with growing demand for new healthcare and education facilities, which alone traditionally account for a third of spending on new building construction.”
Baker continued, “The overall construction industry appears to be on very solid ground for the next two years. That said, uncertainties in international economies, potential labor shortages, lower energy costs, rising interest rates and construction costs all are factors that we will be watching closely to see how they may adversely impact the marketplace.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts
Overall nonresidential building
2015: 7.7%
2016: 8.2%
Commercial/industrial
2015: 11.8%
2016: 10.4%
Hotels
2015: 15.3%
2016: 10.4%
Office buildings
2015: 12.9%
2016: 11.5%
Industrial facilities
2015: 10.5%
2016: 10.1%
Retail
2015: 10.1%
2016: 9.0%
Institutional
2015: 5.0%
2016: 5.4%
Amusement/recreation
2015: 9.1%
2016: 5.3%
Education
2015: 4.7%
2016: 5.2%
Healthcare facilities
2015: 4.7%
2016: 6.2%
Public safety
2015: 1.7%
2016: 3.6%
Religious
2015: 1.2%
2016: 3.6%
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 16 years.
Related Stories
Retail Centers | Jul 27, 2015
Fish-shaped shopping mall designed for odd plot of land in China
The mall, in Qinshui, a city in China’s Shanxi province, will fit within the 250x30-meter dimensions surrounded by parallel roads and two converging rivers.
Airports | Jul 22, 2015
MUST SEE: JFK airport taps Gensler to design terminal for animals
Pets can enjoy luxurious spa and grooming services before being transported directly to their flight from the terminal.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Jul 17, 2015
Japan scraps Zaha Hadid's Tokyo Olympic Stadium project
The rising price tag was one of the downfalls of the 70-meter-tall, 290,000-sm stadium. In 2014, the cost of the project was 163 billion yen, but that rose to 252 billion yen this year.
Cultural Facilities | Jul 16, 2015
Louisville group plans to build world's largest disco ball
The sphere would more than double the size of the current record holder.
Education Facilities | Jul 14, 2015
Chile selects architects for Subantarctic research center
Promoting ecological tourism is one of this facility’s goals
Industrial Facilities | Jul 14, 2015
Tesla may seek to double size of Gigafactory in Nevada
Tesla Motors purchased an additional 1,200 acres next to the Gigafactory and is looking to buy an additional 350 acres.
High-rise Construction | Jul 13, 2015
CTBUH honors top innovations in skyscraper design
The Holedeck coffer slab system is among the breakthrough technologies and projects recognized by the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat with Performance and Innovation Awards.
Sponsored | Building Team | Jul 10, 2015
Are you the wrong type of ‘engaged’ leader?
Much of what’s written about employee engagement focuses on how leaders can help their employees become more involved at work. But what about the leaders themselves?
High-rise Construction | Jun 23, 2015
The world's best new skyscrapers for 2015
One World Trade Center and Abu Dhabi's Burj Mohammed Bin Rashid Tower are among the four towers named Best Tall Buildings by the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat.
Events Facilities | Jun 19, 2015
4 ways convention centers are revamping for the 21st century
Today's convention centers require more flexible spaces, the ability to blend virtual and in-person events, and meaningful sustainability, writes Skanska's Tom Tingle.
