The nonresidential building market was hamstrung by weather-related delays during the first part of the 2014, but conditions improved dramatically throughout the rest of the year to finish with greater than anticipated spending levels. The commercial construction sector is now looking at double-digit increases in 2015, led by vigorous levels of demand for hotels and office buildings.
The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 7.7% increase in 2015, with next year’s projection nudging up to 8.2%.
VIDEO: Q1 2015 Economic Forecast
“This is the first time since the Great Recession that every major building category is projected to see increases in spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But by far, the most significant driver that will fuel greater expansion in the marketplace is the revival in the institutional sector, especially with growing demand for new healthcare and education facilities, which alone traditionally account for a third of spending on new building construction.”
Baker continued, “The overall construction industry appears to be on very solid ground for the next two years. That said, uncertainties in international economies, potential labor shortages, lower energy costs, rising interest rates and construction costs all are factors that we will be watching closely to see how they may adversely impact the marketplace.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts
Overall nonresidential building
2015: 7.7%
2016: 8.2%
Commercial/industrial
2015: 11.8%
2016: 10.4%
Hotels
2015: 15.3%
2016: 10.4%
Office buildings
2015: 12.9%
2016: 11.5%
Industrial facilities
2015: 10.5%
2016: 10.1%
Retail
2015: 10.1%
2016: 9.0%
Institutional
2015: 5.0%
2016: 5.4%
Amusement/recreation
2015: 9.1%
2016: 5.3%
Education
2015: 4.7%
2016: 5.2%
Healthcare facilities
2015: 4.7%
2016: 6.2%
Public safety
2015: 1.7%
2016: 3.6%
Religious
2015: 1.2%
2016: 3.6%
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 16 years.
Related Stories
| Aug 11, 2010
Luxury high-rise meets major milestone
A topping off ceremony was held in late October for 400 Fifth Avenue, a 57,000-sf high-rise that includes a 214-room luxury hotel and 190 high-end residential condominiums. Developed by Bizzi & Partners Development and designed by Gwathmey Siegel & Associates Architects, the 60-story tower in midtown Manhattan sits atop a smaller-scale 10-story base, which creates a street façade t...
| Aug 11, 2010
New building focuses on public safety
The $40 million public safety building for the city of El Cajon, Calif., is under construction and slated for completion in June 2011. The five-story, 119,400-sf building will house the city’s administrative offices, a joint police and fire emergency operations center, central data center, indoor firing range, crime lab, and short-term custody facility.
| Aug 11, 2010
MOB added to new hospital project
A late-2009 ground breaking is planned for a $20 million medical office building on the grounds of the $211 million, 106-bed Loma Linda University Medical Center in Murrieta, Calif., which itself is under construction. Minneapolis-based Frauenshuh HealthCare Real Estate Solutions is developing the five-story, 160,000-sf MOB, which will accommodate 60 physician offices.
| Aug 11, 2010
Firm goes for Gold with office design
DLR Group is designing its new Omaha, Neb., headquarters to achieve LEED Gold. Sustainable features being incorporated into the three-story, 39,000-sf building, which is part of the city’s new Aksarben Village mixed-use development, include daylighting, outdoor workspaces, native landscaping, a green roof, and the pursuit of renewable energy credits.
| Aug 11, 2010
BU students move into high-rise dorm
Boston University’s newest residential building rises 26 stories above the Charles River. Part of the school’s 10-acre John Hancock Student Village, the 396,000-sf tower houses 962 students and has three apartments for faculty use. The tower also has a large multipurpose room on the top floor.
| Aug 11, 2010
Mixed-use Seattle high-rise earns LEED Gold
Seattle’s 2201 Westlake development became the city’s first mixed-use and high-rise residential project to earn LEED Gold. Located in Seattle’s South Lake Union neighborhood, the newly completed 450,000-sf complex includes 300,000 sf of Class A office space, 135 luxury condominiums (known as Enso), and 25,000 sf of retail space.
| Aug 11, 2010
Theater offers spectacular views inside and out
A 500-seat proscenium theater sits at the heart of the 35,000-sf Performing Arts Pavilion at the Jackson Hole Center for the Arts. The entertainment and cultural facility, designed by Stephen Dynia Architects, Jackson Hole, Wyo., also houses glass-walled rehearsal rooms that offer passersby views of the activity going on inside and multifunction lobby with views of Snow King Mountain.
| Aug 11, 2010
Corporate campus gets LEED stamp of Gold
The new 100,000-sf corporate headquarters for The Thornburg Companies in Santa Fe, N.M., earned LEED Gold. Designed in the “new-old Santa Fe style” by Legorreta + Legorreta, with local firms Dekker/Perich/Sabatini and Klinger Constructors on the Building Team, the green building sits on seven acres and features three distinct but interconnected office spaces with two courtyards and ...
| Aug 11, 2010
Expansion of chemistry facility no experiment
A September ground breaking at Wayne State University in Detroit puts the school’s A. Paul Schaap Chemistry Building and Lecture Hall on track for a December 2010 completion. The $37 million, 96,000-sf facility is the second phase of a two-phase project to expand and renovate the existing chemistry building.
| Aug 11, 2010
Design for Miami Art Museum triples gallery space
Herzog & de Meuron has completed design development for the Miami Art Museum’s new complex, which will anchor the city’s 29-acre Museum Park, overlooking Biscayne Bay. At 120,000 sf with 32,000 sf of gallery space, the three-story museum will be three times larger than the current facility.
