Despite the lingering effects of an over-built housing market, the continued difficulty to obtain financing for real estate projects, budget shortfalls at state and municipal governments and the anxiety surrounding the prolonged European debt crisis, there are signs that the U.S. design and construction industry will be improving.
Corporate profits have returned to pre-recession levels and businesses have subsequently been increasing their capital spending, borrowing costs are at record low levels and pent up demand for commercial and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 2.1% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.4% increase of spending in 2013.
“Spending on hotels, industrial plants and commercial properties are going to set the pace for the construction industry over the next two years,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “The institutional market won’t experience the same growth, but healthcare facilities and places of worship are poised for a positive economic outlook in that sector.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
Overall nonresidential |
2.1% |
6.4% |
Commercial / industrial |
5.6% |
11.4% |
Hotels |
10.2% |
19.7% |
Industrial |
6.0% |
10.2% |
Retail |
5.0% |
9.9% |
Office buildings |
4.3% |
9.6% |
Institutional |
-0.1% |
3.6% |
Religious |
5.1% |
6.3% |
Healthcare facilities |
4.5% |
5.3% |
Amusement / recreation |
0.2% |
6.5% |
Education |
-1.7% |
3.1% |
Public safety |
-3.8% |
0.3% |
Remarking on what could derail a positive turnaround, Baker added, “We are concerned that the unusually high energy costs, given the overall weakness in the economy, might trigger a jolt in inflation and hamstring economic recovery. The housing market also needs prices to stabilize and to resolve the high number of delinquencies and foreclosures before it can fully recover.” BD+C
Related Stories
| Jun 13, 2017
Accelerate Live! talk: Incubating innovation through R&D and product development, Jonatan Schumacher, Thornton Tomasetti
Thornton Tomasetti’s Jonatan Schumacher presents the firm’s business model for developing, incubating, and delivering cutting-edge tools and solutions for the firm, and the greater AEC market.
| Jun 13, 2017
Accelerate Live! talk: The future of computational design, Ben Juckes, Yazdani Studio of CannonDesign
Yazdani’s Ben Juckes discusses the firm’s tech-centric culture, where scripting has become an every-project occurrence and each designer regularly works with computational tools as part of their basic toolset.
Industry Research | Jun 13, 2017
Gender, racial, and ethnic diversity increases among emerging professionals
For the first time since NCARB began collecting demographics data, gender equity improved along every career stage.
Architects | Jun 7, 2017
Build your very own version of Frank Lloyd Wright’s Guggenheim Museum with this new LEGO set
744 LEGO bricks are used to recreate the famous Wright design, including the 1992 addition.
Multifamily Housing | Jun 7, 2017
Multifamily visionary: The life and work of architect David Baker
For 35 years, architect David Baker has been a spirited voice for affordable housing, in San Francisco and beyond.
Architects | Jun 5, 2017
NCARB launches second alternative path to architect certification
Architects without a professional degree in architecture can now earn NCARB certification through an alternate path.
Architects | Jun 2, 2017
NELSON joins forces with Cope Linder and KA
More growth ahead, as NELSON expects to double its workforce and revenue this year.
Office Buildings | Jun 2, 2017
Strong brew: Heineken HQ spurs innovation through interaction [slideshow]
The open plan concept features a Heineken bar and multiple social zones.
| Jun 2, 2017
Accelerate Live! talk: How maker culture is transforming Sasaki’s design practice
Sasaki’s Pablo Savid-Buteler and Brad Prestbo talk about how the firm’s maker initiatives are changing the way Sasaki goes to market, and how they are helping the firm win new business.
| May 30, 2017
Accelerate Live! talk: The ROI of innovation culture, Russ Sykes, SmithGroupJJR
Russ Sykes discusses SmithGroupJJR’s ongoing journey to create a firm culture that ignites innovation and propels change across all levels of the organization.