Despite the lingering effects of an over-built housing market, the continued difficulty to obtain financing for real estate projects, budget shortfalls at state and municipal governments and the anxiety surrounding the prolonged European debt crisis, there are signs that the U.S. design and construction industry will be improving.
Corporate profits have returned to pre-recession levels and businesses have subsequently been increasing their capital spending, borrowing costs are at record low levels and pent up demand for commercial and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 2.1% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.4% increase of spending in 2013.
“Spending on hotels, industrial plants and commercial properties are going to set the pace for the construction industry over the next two years,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “The institutional market won’t experience the same growth, but healthcare facilities and places of worship are poised for a positive economic outlook in that sector.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
Overall nonresidential |
2.1% |
6.4% |
Commercial / industrial |
5.6% |
11.4% |
Hotels |
10.2% |
19.7% |
Industrial |
6.0% |
10.2% |
Retail |
5.0% |
9.9% |
Office buildings |
4.3% |
9.6% |
Institutional |
-0.1% |
3.6% |
Religious |
5.1% |
6.3% |
Healthcare facilities |
4.5% |
5.3% |
Amusement / recreation |
0.2% |
6.5% |
Education |
-1.7% |
3.1% |
Public safety |
-3.8% |
0.3% |
Remarking on what could derail a positive turnaround, Baker added, “We are concerned that the unusually high energy costs, given the overall weakness in the economy, might trigger a jolt in inflation and hamstring economic recovery. The housing market also needs prices to stabilize and to resolve the high number of delinquencies and foreclosures before it can fully recover.” BD+C
Related Stories
Architects | Mar 7, 2018
Balkrishna Doshi named 2018 Pritzker Laureate
Over the course of 70 years, Doshi was instrumental in shaping the discourse of architecture throughout India, from low-cost housing for thousands to landmark projects like the Indian Institute of Management.
Architects | Mar 7, 2018
New National Building Museum exhibit explores the architecture of the Manhattan Project
The exhibit will run through March 3, 2019.
Architects | Feb 27, 2018
But first, let me take a selfie: Designing sharable moments
The concept of “selfie walls” has been around for years, but with their growing popularity they have begun to evolve and take on a life of their own.
Market Data | Feb 27, 2018
AIA small firm report: Half of employees have ownership stake in their firm
The American Institute of Architects has released its first-ever Small Firm Compensation Report.
Museums | Feb 26, 2018
*UPDATED* Design team unveils plans for the renovated and expanded Gateway Arch Museum
The goal of the project is to create closer and more robust connections between the Gateway Arch Museum and the landscape of the Jefferson National Expansion Memorial.
Architects | Feb 23, 2018
AIA elevates 152 members and two international architects to the College of Fellows
AIA Fellowship recognizes significant contributions to profession of architecture and society.
Airports | Feb 21, 2018
Terminal Modernization: Why Bother? Part II
This is the second post in our series examining why airport operators should bother to upgrade their facilities, even if capacity isn’t forcing the issue.
Urban Planning | Feb 21, 2018
Leading communities in the Second Machine Age
What exactly is the Second Machine Age? The name refers to a book by MIT researchers Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee.
Retail Centers | Feb 20, 2018
Is there a future in retail banking? Part II
It is critical to not view the physical branch as just another sales channel, but as an important touchpoint along a customer’s journey.
Architects | Feb 15, 2018
AIASF Equity by Design to launch 2018 Equity in Architecture Survey
AIA San Francisco (AIASF) and the Equity by Design Committee, launched the third national Equity in Architecture Survey on February 12, 2018. Building upon the survey conducted in 2016, the third survey will further advance the national movement for equitable practice in the profession.