The CBRE Investor Survey was sent to influential senior housing investors, developers, and brokers throughout the U.S. with the objective of identifying key trends in the senior housing real estate industry in an effort to better understand the state of the rapidly evolving senior housing and care market.
The sector closed another record-setting year in 2015, with 514 institutional transactions closed and $18.7 billion in institutional sales, despite a slowdown in the fourth quarter, according to data from the National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry (NIC). The increase in volume over 2014 was 4.5%, revealing a significant decrease in growth rate, a trend that is consistent with the overall U.S. commercial real estate market.
Among the key findings from the survey: 48% of respondents expect no change in cap rates over the next 12-month period, while 31% expect an increase in cap rates; 21% are expecting to see compression.
The change in capitalization rates in 2015 was minimal compared to prior survey results, signaling that the market cycle is close to reaching a peak. Investor interest (old and new) remains high with 58% of respondents looking to increase their exposure to the space, while participation by public REITs in 2016 is a significant, yet unknown variable.
Senior housing cap rates have averaged at a spread of roughly 518 basis points (bps) to the 10-year Treasury, with the most recent indicated spread falling above the historical average at 554 bps. This indicates room for further compression as interest rates creep upward, according to CBRE. As a point of reference, multifamily cap rates currently represent a 215 bps spread.
Total senior housing returns were reported at 16.3%, 14.8%, and 13.3% over a one-, five-, and 10-year period. These returns have outperformed multifamily returns and the NCREIF Property Index over the same periods.
The number of units under construction has increased from 22,975 at the end of 2012 to 48,903 as of 4Q 2015. With an average development period of 12 to 15 months, a significant portion of this supply will come on line in 2016. This is a major concern in the industry.
“The seniors housing landscape is evolving with the increased presence of sophisticated capital, market transparency, operational efficiencies and technological advances. This can be compared to the institutionalization that the multifamily sector experienced from the mid-1990s to early 2000s,” said Zach Bowyer, MAI, National Practice Leader for CBRE’s seniors housing specialty practice. “Increased investment activity, coupled with increased construction activity, has resulted in an increased demand for experienced operators. Growing pains are expected as the market expands, and property management continues to be a key factor in protecting the value of a seniors housing asset.”
For a PDF copy of the CBRE Senior Housing Investor Survey & Market Outlook, click here.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Aug 9, 2017
Related Companies unveils plans for One Hudson Yards luxury rental residences
The 33-story tower will be positioned on the High Line with views of the Hudson River and downtown Manhattan.
Multifamily Housing | Aug 9, 2017
Multifamily developers, designers cater to occupants’ need for mobility
Bike storage facilities and “bicycle kitchens” are among the most popular mobility amenities in multifamily developments, according to a new survey by Multifamily Design + Construction magazine.
Mixed-Use | Aug 9, 2017
Mixed-use development will act as a gateway to Orange County’s ‘Little Saigon’
The development will include apartments, ground-floor retail, and a five-story hotel.
Mixed-Use | Aug 8, 2017
Dorte Mandrup’s 74,000-sm masterplan will be highlighted by an IKEA and BIG’s ‘Cacti’
The mixed-use development links a new IKEA store, a hotel, and housing with green space.
High-rise Construction | Aug 1, 2017
Construction on the world’s skinniest tower halts due to ballooning costs
The planned 82-story tower has stalled after completing just 20 stories.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 31, 2017
Chicago’s Ukrainian Village neighborhood adds new co-living space
The new building offers 12 bedrooms across four floors of living space.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 27, 2017
Apartment market index: Business conditions soften, but still solid
Despite some softness at the high end of the apartment market, demand for apartments will continue to be substantial for years to come, according to the National Multifamily Housing Council.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 27, 2017
Game rooms and game simulators popular amenities in multifamily developments
The number of developments providing space for physical therapy was somewhat surprising, according to a new survey.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 25, 2017
Co-living arrives in Queens: Common adds two new co-living homes
Common adds a new coliving home in Brooklyn and its first offering in Queens with Common Lincoln and Common Cornelia.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 19, 2017
Student housing trends: The transformation of co-living in college
The Student Hotel is representative of a new model for delivering housing solutions for students globally.